Nice day for the portfolio. Software names are getting bid, and as well as the medical breakthrough ETF we posted yesterday also had a very strong day. We got stopped out of with a 1R loss at $39.50. we took yesterday was also up nicely.

SPX sold off on hawkish FOMC Minutes, mainly pulled down by semi-conductor weakness. As you know, we’re staying away from those names until further notice. Parabolic rallies need time to digest, and if these names chop around for months with erratic moves in both directions, they tend to wear you out or scare you out. We will play them once the trend and momentum is back on.

Our data remains very accurate, but when the market turns choppy and news-driven—with constant noise and manipulation—short-term moves become harder to predict. That’s exactly when our GEX by Expiry and longer-term GEX by Strike become most useful. They help us filter out the short-term noise and focus on longer-term positioning.

The reason, why we stayed in ARKG and XBI, because positioning on both looked very constructive on the TMAD app, and we’re now enjoying the results of our patience.

For example, XBI has a GEX call wall at $200 and this can be pin for the price into Fall. We see strong positive flow into September on our GEX by Expiry chart.

Now, let’s talk about the bonds and FOMC Minutes, as well as look at the market for the rest of the week.

Treasury Expands Long-Bond Buybacks: What You Need to Know

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Big gap down in the market today on rising bond yields and higher oil prices linked to Middle East tensions. Elevated Treasury yields put pressure on growth stocks. The 10-year yield climbed to multi-month highs around 4.74%, while the 30-year hit its highest level since 2007 near 5.3%. Higher yields make future earnings less attractive and raise borrowing costs, hitting high-valuation tech and AI names the hardest.

We currently have no semiconductors in the long-term book. We may trade them if the technical setup is clear, but most of those names remain very choppy. We’ll wait for better trends to return. Until then, focus on stocks that already show a clean trend.

We post daily names that are in a clean uptrend with momentum. SCORE under TMAD is highlighting a bunch of names — you can check their technical charts and GEX and trade them as well.

We have not been trading the strategy since early summer because of the choppy conditions. It does not work well in this environment, but it still surfaces solid names every day.

In short, it was a classic risk-off day: higher yields plus energy and geopolitical uncertainty hit the AI/tech complex hardest and pulled the broader market lower. Defensive areas like healthcare and energy held up better.

It’s good to have a mixed portfolio going into fall.

Let’s see SPX levels and our trading book update + trade ideas into tomorrow.

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Quick video update for you with trades and SPX Levels.

Happy Monday! Be cautious if we break down this 10DMA where we’re sitting right now.

Watch trade setups in the video.

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Pretty quiet week in the rearview. Markets held their ground near highs without much drama, powered by solid earnings (especially the AI complex), cooling odds of a near-term Fed hike, and an economy that still looks resilient even as it slows a bit.

Wednesday brings the FOMC minutes from the July 28–29 meeting. That’s the one where the committee held rates at 3.50–3.75% but three members dissented in favor of a hike. We’ll be reading closely for any shift in the internal debate—how worried they really were about inflation versus the softer data, and what that implies for September.

Layer on oil and Hormuz developments (still the biggest wild-card for inflation and risk sentiment) plus the wave of consumer earnings (Home Depot, Walmart and the rest). Those will tell us whether the recent soft retail sales print was a one-off or the start of something stickier.

Overall setup remains cautiously constructive / mildly bullish in the near term. Earnings strength, lower rate-hike probabilities, and decent activity are still supporting prices. But the usual late-August into September seasonality is starting to loom, geopolitics hasn’t gone away, and those elevated long-term yields remain a quiet headwind. A flare-up in the Middle East is still the clearest risk that could change the tone quickly.

This is exactly where precision tools matter. Looking at platforms that combine real-time options flow, gamma exposure (GEX) by strike, momentum scoring, and supply/demand zones, certain levels on SPY and QQQ are standing out as potential “ultimate targets” before any seasonal digestion sets in.

If you want to see those levels, the GEX walls, the momentum scores, and the full scanner yourself, check out TMAD.app. It’s built for exactly this: unusual options flow, GEX by expiry and strike, momentum ranking across 950+ names, daily/weekly zones, and an agentic score that surfaces high-probability setups.

Full access comes with a paid Substack subscription.

Head over, lock in access, and put the data to work. The next few weeks are going to reward the people who can see the real positioning. Not just technicals.

Let’s begin!

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Frustration in Tehran is mounting as empty diplomatic promises combine with escalating threats, wearing down the regime's patience with the Trump administration. Reports indicate that Tehran is prepared to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed as a strategic leverage point, maintaining pressure throughout the current U.S. presidential term until a new administration takes office.

At the pump, relief remains elusive as diesel prices hover near multi-year highs, sustained by expanding refinery margins and tight product markets. Meanwhile, crude oil prices stay suppressed as the administration continues tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, driving emergency stockpiles to multi-decade lows.

This aggressive drawdown is approaching a critical threshold that the market cannot ignore much longer. Compounding these structural imbalances, the diesel-to-crude crack spread has widened to its highest level since 2020, signaling that a severe supply-side crisis is brewing beneath the surface

POSITIONING UPDATE

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Quick SPX Updates and some trade updates.

Please, make sure you are all using tmad.app. The login is the same as your email on here. Besides having all the GEX by strike and Expiry, Scanner and Score + Watchlists, we also have Fundamentals and Session stats, where you can see info like Beta, Market Cap, Forward P/E, EV/Revenue.

Please check it out.

looking excellent by the way also.

We have CPI today and PPI tomorrow, so we will have a choppy market.

What to Expect?

• July CPI: Wednesday, August 12, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET. Consensus is roughly +0.1% m/m / +3.4% y/y (core ~+0.2% m/m / +2.5% y/y).

• July PPI: Thursday, August 13, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET. Consensus around +0.2% m/m (core ~+0.3%).

SPX Levels

As you can see, the market has been chopping around and moving averages has been catching up on the massive move. There are cluster of resistances that can be broken out on a cold print. Or we retest lower on a hot print. Be ready for volatility.

Resistance: 7,760 / 7,750

Support: 7,730 / 7,692

We opened EXPE today for long-term, 1/2 position, and we added if we retest towards 300. Good trend and momentum, we will hold into the end of the year.

No other trades today.

Cheers,

Lia

Disclaimer: The information provided in this blog is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or financial instruments. Trading and investing involve substantial risks, including the potential for complete loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Even with the highest probabilities identified by the TMAD scanner, individual trades can and do fail.

Always conduct your own thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. TMAD Finance and Trading Mindset & Data LLC, along with its affiliates, expressly disclaims any and all responsibility or liability for any financial decisions or losses incurred by readers. We are not financial advisors.

The market is chopping around and flagging right now. It’s a normal price action after an incredible rally we had since Thursday, July 30.

Today, I made a video with trade updates for you.

I’m going to post SPX levels now, and I will also post trade ideas that are looking excellent into tomorrow and this week.

Please listen to the video, it’s explaining a lot about risk management based on your risk appetite and names we’re holding plus scanner top 10.

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The July employment report delivered a clear disappointment. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 jobs against expectations of an 85,000 gain. The economy actually lost positions on a net basis. Private-sector hiring managed only 30,000 new jobs versus the 78,000 forecast.

Wage growth slowed to just 0.1 percent month-over-month and 3.2 percent over the past year, both cooler than expected. The unemployment rate edged down slightly to 4.1 percent from 4.2 percent, the one mild positive, while the broader underemployment measure stayed flat at 7.9 percent and labor-force participation slipped a touch lower.

In everyday terms, it became harder for the average person to find work or secure a raise, and the labor market looks softer than most had anticipated.

The next major data gate: the August 12 CPI report. Together with the survival of the current ceasefire, these two events now form the main conditions that must hold if the recent calm and rally.

Against this backdrop, markets had already sharply re-priced an Iran de-escalation story. The S&P 500 climbed roughly 5.7 percent in four sessions from its post-FOMC low, breaking out of a five-month sideways range. Bond-market volatility also compressed for the third time this year on the same hopes, with traders unwinding much of the protection they had held against higher long-term yields. Implied volatility now sits only modestly above realized levels, leaving little remaining cushion. In effect, the market prepaid for a quiet negotiation window rather than waiting to confirm one.

A closer look at how the equity rally unfolded shows it was not driven by aggressive new buying. Order-flow data from the S&P futures reveal a large net negative cumulative delta, meaning far more aggressive selling hit the market than aggressive buying, yet prices still rose. This pattern occurs when passive limit orders absorb the selling pressure. Combined with falling volatility, it points to systematic and vol-target funds mechanically re-leveraging rather than discretionary investors stepping in with fresh conviction. The advance was therefore carried more by existing positions adjusting than by strong new demand.

The geopolitical foundation is equally fragile. The de-escalation rests on talks the Iranian side publicly denies exist, between positions that were mutually exclusive only weeks earlier. Both sides have a documented history of strategic deception, and previous agreements this year did not endure. At the same time the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve sits at a 43-year low, roughly two months above its operational floor, so any renewed supply disruption would hit a system whose main shock absorber is already depleted.

The FED

Markets need clear leadership right now. The FOMC is not providing it. Instead it is following a market that is itself confused. That is not a solid base for policy. Conditions are unusually messy and the data send mixed signals, so it is no surprise that markets are uncertain. But the deeper problem is not the data. It is the Fed.

The right way works like this: the FOMC forms its own view, states it clearly, watches how markets react, and changes course only if the facts change. That is real leadership with clear accountability.

What Chair Warsh has described is the reverse. He has pushed the FOMC to take its cues from the market instead of leading it. He has even admitted that reading markets is difficult and often wrong. That admission makes the current approach harder to justify. Under Warsh, the FOMC is supposed to listen to the market without telling the market what the Fed itself thinks. This is a major change in how the central bank operates.

The base case remains that this peace is temporary. Iran has incentives to buy time; the U.S. political calendar does not. Because the timing is uncertain, the cleaner approach in our opinion is to own defined-risk protection that spans both the CPI report and the September window, financed by the recent advance, rather than to chase the rally.

Our updated trade log is below, as well as new SPX levels and a trade ideas into next week. Let’s revisit our hedges as well.

Let’s begin!

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The latest FOMC meeting caught most investors off guard, largely due to the new Fed chair's opaque communication style and avoidance of forward guidance. Compounding these concerns, proposals to reduce the frequency of policy meetings have raised questions about central bank credibility. This uncertainty triggered an aggressive bond sell-off, pushing yields to their highest levels since 2008.

The dollar took a hit as investors officially scratched rate hikes off the table for the rest of the year. That weaker greenback threw a lifeline to battered precious metals, sparking fresh capital inflows after a brutal stretch of selling.

At the same time, crude is sliding again as demand fears mount, dragging U.S. exports down with it. Put it all together, and the current macro backdrop is carving out a temporary floor for gold and silver.

POSITIONING UPDATE

GOLD ETF

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Just a quick update.

The market is retesting this huge move, and it’s completely normal if we chop around here or even dip a bit lower for a deeper retest. Overextended moves that stretch too far from the average almost always pull back toward the mean. That’s classic mean reversion in action . The statistical tendency for prices (and returns) to gravitate back toward their historical average after extreme deviations. Think of it like a rubber band: the further it stretches, the stronger the snap-back force. Tools like Bollinger Bands, Z-scores, or the Hurst exponent (values below 0.5 signal mean-reverting regimes) quantify this.

Behavioral finance research, including DeBondt and Thaler’s work on market overreaction, underpins the idea that extremes rarely persist indefinitely.

The CMT Association (Chartered Market Technician), which I’ve read and studied all their books, treats mean reversion as a core technical concept. Excellent technical education I can highly recommend.

Please watch our latest video on how to sell options with TMAD app.

SNDK Earnings

Big beats on both EPS ($39.25 vs ~$35 expected) and revenue ($8.97B vs ~$8.5B), with massive YoY growth driven by AI/data-center demand. Guidance was roughly in-line, so the stock is reacting mixed after-hours. Let’s look at some strong support levels and GEX for those interested to allocate on this pullback.

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Last week’s Wednesday bear trap was absolute gold. We’re sitting at fresh all-time highs, and while a retest of this monster move is always possible, the market’s momentum right now is powerful. We’re not going to speculate about whether another dip is coming — that would be pure guesswork instead of data and technical analysis, and that’s simply not how we operate here.

Normally a move this sharp gets a retest, but just look at the March 30–May 29 run: barely any pullback at all.

Today, we opened with so many gaps that it was nearly impossible to add new trades.

We did, however, sell a solid batch of covered calls on NOW, MSFT, SNOW, and OSCR. Our usual playbook is to sell on the second or third strong up day once we’re hitting resistance, targeting 0.20–0.25 delta and 3–4 weeks out.

Today we’re breaking down SPCX earnings and digging into a special high-short-interest name we’ve been holding for a while that has earnings tomorrow.

Here are the updated trades and SPX levels…

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What a day. Was much needed. We broke out all the resistance levels and we’re in striking distance from all time highs. We are cautiously optimistic and we will be looking at some great setups today.

Our (purchased at $98), (purchased around $368, posted deep dive on this name multiple times in the past months), and purchased at $285.

We’re still holding most of the other trades. As we explained in the trade log, the summer has been choppy, and we’re taking a slightly different approach: more longer-term conviction based on long-term GEX by Expiry (see the TMAD app) and smarter positioning without such tight stops.

Example: In the TMAD app, under GEX BY STRIKE, choose short-, medium-, or long-term. $100 is a put GEX wall on a long-term view, and $150 is the GEX call wall, which is our target. We entered at $98; now we have strong support above our entry price, so we should be safe. Of course, nobody can control the market, and we could dump below if any bad news hits, but we’re looking at probabilities here.

Also NOW is on a resistance we need to break so there is a bit of headwind but once we get above the $115 level, we’re good to go higher first towards $120-$130.

Let’s now look at SPX levels and some excellent looking charts!

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Over the weekend, the US prepared major strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure amid the ongoing war, but President Trump canceled them late Saturday after requests from Iran and regional countries like Saudi Arabia, citing an emerging deal to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end Iran’s nuclear threat.

Iranian media denied that Tehran asked for the pause or agreed to reopen the strait, insisting it remains restricted under IRGC control while forces stay on high alert. Iran did say talks with Oman on managing a Hormuz route are nearly complete, and Trump indicated negotiations will continue on Monday.

A roller coaster ride is nothing in comparison to this conflict.

Let’s look at SPX levels for tomorrow and early this week. Then at some charts that are starting to look lovely and have good flow on our scanner.

We’re also going to release our longer term holdings. Please see WATCHLIST, then TMAD TRADES and LONG TERM. These are 12+ months holding periods. Not shorter term trades.

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Recent statements from Tehran continue to clash with President Trump’s optimistic outlook on a diplomatic breakthrough, with any prospect of a deal fading as Iran launches fresh missile strikes against U.S. bases in the region.

Compounding these escalating tensions, reports indicate Tehran is set to acquire advanced short-range air defense systems from China, signaling that the regime is preparing for a protracted conflict rather than a settlement.

With the administration managing constrained weapon stockpiles and Pentagon funding pressures, the likelihood of persistent Iranian strikes remains high, keeping pressure on the U.S. while recognizing that a temporary ceasefire would primarily serve to allow Washington time to resupply.

It's becoming pretty clear that a real peace deal is still a long way off. With refineries getting hit and diesel prices in New York staying stubbornly high, inflation is sticking around. If fuel costs don't cool down soon, the Fed is going to be forced to step in and hike interest rates again.

POSITIONING UPDATE

BRENT OIL ETF

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Please make sure you’re all on www.tmad.app It’s life saving because you can see what names to stay away and what indexes momentum and flow is doing.
Now, let’s discuss what happened today regarding FOMC.

Today’s FOMC under Chair Warsh sent a clear signal: the Fed is no longer leading. It is following.

Warsh has made market prices a primary input for policy guidance, arguing that financial markets deliver the most valuable real-time information when they respond directly to data rather than Fed forecasts. He has repeatedly stressed the need to observe “direct and unfiltered” market reactions and has welcomed the sharp rise in yields since the last meeting as markets “playing the ball, not the referee.” He has also criticized traditional data dependence, noting problems with lagging official statistics and the “data and the dependence” itself, while pushing for better real-time sources.

That approach carries an inherent limit. Markets are noisy, incomplete, and imperfect signals. If the FOMC is deliberately orienting around them, its own actions become less predictable and less reliable by design. Warsh’s own framing essentially concedes the point.

The recent yield spike looks far more like a reaction to the renewed Iran conflict and energy-price risks than a clean verdict on domestic growth, investment, or the broader economy. Warsh treats the move as the market “already speaking.” If that is the case, the Committee may be reading the wrong message.

Recent soft CPI and PPI prints (June headline CPI down 0.4% month-over-month, PPI down 0.3%) underscore the tension. A framework that downplays conventional economic data while elevating market prices leaves open questions about how those numbers are weighted.

The market may be falling or repricing, but not necessarily for the reasons Warsh attributes. It may simply be registering that the FOMC has shifted from leader to follower and market does not like it.

SPX Levels

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Looking at the CME FedWatch Tool, the market is pricing 68.5% no change (hold 350- 375), 31.5% 25 bp hike to 375- 400. Current target remains 3.50–3.75%.

What Citadel said:

Citadel Securities (Frank Flight, head of macro) flipped yesterday and now calls for a surprise 25 bp hike this week. Their case: inflation risks still skewed higher, labor market no longer a downside risk, moderate energy-price rebound tips a finely balanced meeting, and a July move would maximize impact for Chair Warsh—bolstering his price-stability credibility and “emphatically ending the forward-guidance era.” They acknowledge it’s close, but prefer the tactical hit now to waiting until September.

Why we think they’re wrong:

Consensus (and most bank economists) still sees a hold. Recent soft-core prints and the July 18 data flow have already taken the July hike “off the table,” even in Citadel’s own prior note; one moderate energy bounce doesn’t override that. The Fed almost never delivers an untelegraphed hike when market odds are only in the low 30s (BofA notes it’s essentially unprecedented since 1994). Warsh can reinforce credibility just as effectively with hawkish language + a clear September bias without the shock-and-awe risk. Political noise and the preference for measured communication still point to hold + guidance shift rather than an immediate move.

Bottom line: base case remains hold; watch the statement and presser for how aggressively they tee up September.

Tech took a beating today. Hit 100DMA and bounced just below it. We still see the $660 as a GEX put wall, and we reached $667 today. For momentum traders, such as what we do in TMAD, this is not a bullish sign. There are pockets of strong flows that we detect with the scanner and can trade manually, but overall, the market remains difficult.

Besides FOMC, we have also and earnings tomorrow.

We will do earnings prep below.

See what names we added today for longer-term and shorter-term trading, and tomorrow’s SPX Levels.

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The volatility we observed on the options chain today was remarkable. It’s fun to sell options now rather than buy them, and it’s also fun to scalp SPY/SPX while staying away from swings and short-term calls (less than 3 months).

The SPX levels from yesterday worked perfectly. Here are the new ones for tomorrow.

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The market continues to show sideways, choppy price action. We have a monster earnings week coming up. AAPL, AMZN, META, and MSFT are the biggest ones (along with several other heavyweights). Plus we have FOMC. Get ready for the volatility. We’ll put out earnings prep closer to those dates (usually the day before). Also, if you’re frustrated with the market and recent performance, relax. Plenty of strong traders are dealing with drawdowns this month, and equity curves have flattened noticeably, especially over the last two weeks.

Weekend Developments with Iran

After nearly two weeks of consecutive U.S. nighttime strikes, the U.S. paused attacks for a second straight night. Iran reported a peaceful night with no new strikes and confirmed it had also halted its retaliatory operations against U.S. allies, calling its strategy reactive. Tensions remain high over the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran’s IRGC claimed to have stopped multiple vessels. Diplomatic efforts, including talks involving Oman on traffic management, are underway, with some viewing the mutual pause as a positive signal for possible interim talks.

This could have a positive impact on the market in the Monday morning session.

The Week Ahead: High-Stakes Data and the Fed

This is the biggest week of the summer. On Wednesday, the Fed is expected to hold rates at 3.50–3.75%. The statement and press conference will matter a lot after recent mixed data — falling inflation, weak jobs numbers, but stronger services and housing.

On Thursday, Q2 GDP is expected at 2.3%. It will show if growth is still holding up. PCE prices are forecast to turn slightly negative.

On Friday, the Employment Cost Index and other data will check if wages and confidence are cooling.

This week will heavily influence when the Fed might start cutting rates.

The Bigger Market Picture

The easy upside and easy money may be finished, yet aggressive shorting of the S&P is not advised until we change the trend and break down below long-term support around 6,970.

There’s a chance we can break out the highs around 7,700 and continue towards 8,000, but we must be very cautious and also understand the bull market is most likely in the final stages.

We opened some long-term hedges.
We have SPY 740/700 bear put spreads for December, QQQ 685/640 bear put spreads for November, and SPY 735/700 bear put spreads for October. All regular expiries.

Sure, if the market bounces now, we might be down on the hedges, but that’s what hedges are for, and also we have a longer-term expiry, so let’s see how long any bounce lasts.

What names are looking good into next week?

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The Middle East conflict has widened to the Red Sea as Houthi forces target Saudi oil tankers attempting to bypass the blocked Strait of Hormuz. With Russian exports curbing and global inventories shrinking, this dual-chokepoint crisis has pushed Brent crude back above $100 a barrel, driving a sharp increase in retail diesel and gasoline prices across Europe.

Global bond yields are steadily climbing, stoking fears of an aggressive hawkish pivot from central banks and injecting volatility across broader markets. For the Trump administration ahead of the midterms, the strategic path forward narrows to two choices: accept a damaging diplomatic compromise or seize total control of the Strait of Hormuz, driving crude prices higher in the process.

Given the recent push for expanded defense funding, the latter stands as the base case, suggesting elevated market volatility is here to stay.

POSITIONING UPDATE

BRENT OIL ETF

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Summer chop continues, and the rule is to take gains fast or not trade at all. If you’re good at scalping and quick day trades, go for it. If you lack the time, or the idea of fast trading is stressing you out, stay on the sidelines.

We have a Discord Wall Street trader who has an 80% hit rate and trades options very fast. If it’s something you enjoy and like to trade, let me know in DM; you’d have to transfer membership and still get to use our TMAD app and get our Substack newsletters.

Impossible to do on here as it’s very rapid trading.

Anyways, let’s look at the market and INTC earnings after hours.

Also our strategy from June 6 is now closed and it gave small profits, but beat the market 0.45%.

We still have our small agentic portfolio open on the Public platform as of July 16; it’s currently flat.

We won’t be opening a new one as of now.

HOW TO USE THE SCANNER IN THIS ENVIRONMENT?

Please go to Tmad.app - SCANNER and find names that are in uptrend, with high score, positive momentum, and ideally positive IV Z score. You can simply search the columns and choose which data you want to see (see the screenshot below).

You also want to see CALL SURGE to go long and if your call wall % is further than your put wall % that’s a great setup. Play around with it; it’s very simple and user-friendly.

This way you avoid names that are in downtrend, chopping and have no momentum so you don’t get trapped.

Of course it doesn’t mean all these names will continue, but there’s a high probability. For setups, you need to use technical analysis and risk management.

When you click on particular name, you get even more information on support and resistance.

For example, you can choose GEX by strike but on short-, medium-, and long-term. To see what the positioning says. See screenshot on - positioning into longer term is bullish, positive GEX, and the red line at $360 means there is a GEX put wall, and most likely price could retest if we see downtrend. $430 is a call wall, so your first target to the upside.

If you’re selling options, these are great levels to sell options below or above when volatility is hightened.

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