As we prepare for the week ahead, the SPX is presenting one of the cleanest, high-conviction setups we’ve seen in some time. Not because of strong directional bias, but because of the extreme compression and full disagreement across timeframes.

Let’s start with SPX levels, then let’s look at top charts for the week and talk about a new addition we made to the scanner.

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Happy 4th of July to all our American and non-American subsribers who enjoyed longer weekend. Let’s talk about crypto today.

Bitcoin dropped from a weekly high near $62,900 to around $57,700. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 24 (Extreme Fear). Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a sixth straight week of outflows totaling $5.94 billion.

Macro & Key Levels

A broader Nasdaq drop of 2.2% on June 24 triggered $706 million in crypto liquidations (84% longs). On June 29, the Supreme Court ruled in Trump v. Cook, keeping Fed Governor Lisa Cook in place and removing any near-term path to a dovish board, reinforcing the hawkish June FOMC outlook.

Bitcoin is testing its 200-week moving average near $62,457.

Strategy Ends “Never-Sell” Era

Strategy announced a new Digital Credit Capital Framework on June 29, allowing up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin sales to build cash reserves. It also authorized $1 billion in share buybacks and raised the STRC dividend to 12%.

The company bought no Bitcoin last week — its first pause in years. MSTR shares rose ~13%. Reactions were mixed: some see it removing an overhang, others view it as a break from Saylor’s philosophy. It introduces potential new Bitcoin sell pressure from Strategy’s balance sheet.

Regulatory: CLARITY Act

July 4, today, is Trump’s self-imposed deadline for the CLARITY Act. The bill can still reach the Senate floor but needs 60 votes and reconciliation. Galaxy Research puts 2026 passage odds at roughly 50-50.

Ethereum On-Chain

Ethereum’s staking ratio hit 31% (~37.3 million ETH staked), up from ~29% in early 2025. This locks up supply and reduces liquid selling pressure. However, recent validator growth is concentrated among large entities and ETFs rather than retail, and net staking flows have turned negative at times. ETH has lagged Bitcoin in the selloff.

Crypto Related Names

Let’s look at charts with levels and options flow on $BTC $ETH now.

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The oil market is currently enjoying a calm that it hasn't earned. While prices have retreated below $70, the cost of that stability is visible in our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which is now at its lowest point since 1983.

Trump used up the fire extinguisher to put out the Iran-conflict fire, but the shed is still filled with fuel. If the peace deal falters, we have almost no buffer left. Brace for a volatility spike that could easily push us back above $100 if the supply chain gets snagged again.

POSITIONING UPDATE

WTI ETF

USO is finding some technical relief as the put-wall cluster continues to hold, providing a temporary floor. However, don't mistake this for a recovery. Despite the ongoing peace talks, the headlines out of the Strait of Hormuz, including Iran's latest warnings to tankers, are keeping the market on edge.

My view remains a bottoming phase, but the negative GEX tells us that any rally will be met with selling pressure. We are in a 'wait-and-see' environment where the floor is only as strong as the next diplomatic update.

TA: Oil is near cluster of supports at $95 and $100.

GOLD ETF

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Jobs numbers will be probably neutral for the market.

Here are SPX levels for the last day of this trading week, remember tomorrow the makret is closed.

Resistance: 7,588 / 7,550 / 7,495

Support: 7,470 / 7,319

Let’s see what trades we close into longer weekend and we will update by 2pm ET in trade log.

Friday: Commodities Report

Saturday: Crypto Report

Sunday: Top 10 and AI prompt.

As you can see, market is still mixed bag as well as TOP 10. Some days are stellar and some are negative. That’s normal for a chop. If you look at our scanner, we see uptrend on again. Until yesterday the trend was neutral and that also indicates chop. (Please see the arrow next to the ETF on TMAD.app. )

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Let’s see what the market has to say into next days.

We closed the June 11 portfolio we held 2 weeks with 1.24%. SPX was down -1.43%.

We still hold the June 22 portfolio that is up 3.16%.

For individual trades please check our trade log.

Let’s look at the market now and what we see in terms of algos and flow:

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Just a quick update on the market. As said in our last letter, we’re moving higher into 4th of July weekend.

We got some trades filled yesterday, see updated trade log. Now let’s look into SPX levels for today, Tuesday June 30 and what sector has the strongest rotation signals.

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Just a small video about our new addition to TMAD.app.

Please let us know if you have any questions.

Lia and Alessio

Last week, we added GEX by Expiry to our TMAD App. It’s an excellent tool for trading and investing as well, because you can distinguish real movement from noise and see the allocation of smart money.

What does it mean and how to use it?

When looking at GEX by expiry, it’s helpful to break it down by time frame rather than just the total number. Here’s the simple way to think about it:

• Short-term (next 1 month): This is mostly market makers doing forced hedging. When prices move, they have to adjust their positions quickly to stay neutral. This creates a lot of short-term noise and can push the market around even if there’s no real conviction behind the move.

• Mid-term (3 to 6 months): Here, you start seeing more hedge funds and speculative money. These players are usually taking directional bets, so this timeframe gives you a better read on where the market/stock price might be heading over the next few months.

• Long-term (6+ months, including LEAPS*- options contracts with expiry longer than 12 months). This reflects what big institutions are actually committed to. These positions tend to be more stable and act as the real foundation of the market.

By splitting GEX into these buckets, you can separate the short-term hedging noise from the stronger, more meaningful positioning. It helps you see who is being forced to act versus who is actually betting with conviction.

Let’s look at, for example:

1. Short-term (This week – Jun 26 expiry)

• This is by far the biggest bar on the chart.

• Very large positive GEX, mostly from calls.

• This means market makers are long gamma in the very near term. They will likely buy dips and sell rips aggressively this week. It acts as a stabilizing force and can make big moves harder to sustain in either direction.

2. Next few weeks (Late June – Mid July)

• Mostly small bars.

• The negative gamma around Jul 17 is the main thing to watch. If the price starts moving hard into that expiry, moves could become more violent.

• Longer-term gamma is not providing any strong directional bias.

In simple terms:
The chart says “near-term support is strong, but watch mid-July for potential volatility.” The big positive gamma this week is currently the dominant force.

3. Longer-term (August and beyond)

• The bars get much smaller and are mostly mildly positive.

• No major negative gamma clusters in the back months.

• This shows that big institutional positioning further out is relatively balanced and not heavily one-sided.

Last chance to lock in our current pricing.

In just 2 weeks, we’ll be raising the price of our scanner. This is your final opportunity to secure the current rate of $59/month and get grandfathered in forever, meaning your price will never increase, no matter how much we improve the app.

We’re constantly adding new features, testing strategies, and pushing the scanner forward. Running live data, maintaining the engineering team, and covering token costs isn’t cheap, and as we keep getting better, our costs rise too. That’s why the price is going up.

But if you lock in now, you’ll be protected as one of our original users. For the best value, we recommend going yearly; you’ll get an even bigger discount while locking in the low rate permanently.

Don’t wait until the price increases. Secure your spot at the current rate today.

TOP 10 Strategy

We currently have 2 baskets open:

June 11, which we opened on June 12.

Currently up 0.74% in opposition to SPY being down 1.43%.

June 22, which we opened on June 23.

Currently up 5.1% in opposition to SPY being down 0.5%.

TOP 10 Trade Ideas for Tomorrow:

As you can see on our scanner, the TOP 10 is shifting away from tech and semiconductors towards other sectors:

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We have some news about updates on our TMAD app. We added GEX by Expiry just below the chart with GEX by Strike, so now not only can you see what strikes have the highest open interest, but also in what time frames, whether it’s short term, longer term, such as leaps. This can help you tremendously when picking the right strikes and timing on your option contracts. This is updated in real time during market hours. Please let us know if you have any questions

Now, let’s continue with our weekly commodities report.

The inflation data just landed, and it’s worse than the market hoped. With PCE headline inflation at a three-year high of 4.1%, the "transitory" narrative is officially dead.

Bank of America is now warning of at least three rate hikes before the year is out, which is exactly the scenario I’ve been cautioning about. The dollar is flexing, and unfortunately, that means more pain for gold and silver. We are in the "turmoil" phase I predicted, and until the Fed gets a handle on prices, the path of least resistance for metals remains down.

DOLLAR ETF

The dollar is flexing its muscles, and the data backs it up. We’re seeing a surge in call open interest that tells you exactly where the big money is parked. With the Fed signaling a potential rate hike, EUR/USD is shifting downward toward the 1.10 target. It’s a dollar-bullish environment, and the institutional positioning confirms it.

As you can see from our scoring strategy, this name has already been in the top 10 on our scanner multiple days.

POSITIONING UPDATE

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The market is still very choppy. It's fine to sit on your hands. We are on 50DMA, and thankfully, Micron Technology delivered record fiscal Q3 2026 results, reporting revenue of $41.46 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $25.11, with non-GAAP gross margin reaching 84.9%, driven by surging AI demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), DRAM, and NAND.

The company issued strong Q4 guidance of ~$50 billion in revenue (±$1B) and non-GAAP EPS of ~$31, with expected gross margin of ~86%, reflecting robust AI-driven growth and multi-year customer agreements.

We’re bouncing a little bit now, but in order to break out from the chop, we have some important levels to cross.

Let’s look into it and trade for the day.

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It’s prudent to say that the market is very choppy, and as mentioned yesterday, individual manual trading remains difficult. We got stopped out of some of our manual trades today. We won’t be opening new manual trades for the time being, and even though we give you trade ideas we find excellent, please manage them on your own.

We opened the algorithmic TOP 10 picks at market open today, and this will be our preferred strategy until the market calms down and regains direction.

See model portfolio: 10k allocated per name, 100k total portfolio. June 22 on scanner.

As mentioned yesterday, we will hold these names for 2 weeks in July. (10 business days).

For those who prefer manual trading, I have 4 trade ideas ready for you, along with SPX levels.

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Just a quick post today, we will be opening a new basket tomorrow. A bunch of manual trades were filled today, and they’ve been updated in the trade log.

The market is still choppy, and it’s easier to use a basket portfolio with an overall stop-loss than to use separate stops.

I’m going to open these Top 10 longs at the open tomorrow. And also, I’m attaching the Top 10 Short Score as many of you asked!

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The recent move higher is mostly artificial, driven by inflation, dollar weakness, and the “Iran peace deal” story, which pushed oil and volatility lower. Without those factors, the market would be much lower. The market itself doesn’t really want to go higher on its own. Supportive flows are helping in the short term, but the structure is still fragile. As we said, we expected a small pullback in June, but that’s just the beginning of something bigger, most likely headed into the Midterm election.

Let’s look into the details on volatility and SPX levels. + TOP trades for this week.

2x LONG VIX FUTURES ETF

We’re seeing fresh signs of volatility protection buying in the UVIX options market. The latest gamma exposure chart shows meaningful call flow coming in just above the current price, with a large positive bar at the $3.50 strike. Overall gamma exposure sits at a healthy +$9.8 million. This activity lines up with traders using UVIX calls as a leveraged way to protect against or position for a volatility spike. While the broader equity market has been grinding higher amid recent geopolitical headlines, the options market is quietly building insurance for the other side.

Iran Conflict

The current agreement with Iran is being treated more as a temporary pause than a lasting resolution. The core issues, including the remaining highly enriched uranium, have not been addressed. Right now, the base case points to a fragile “armed pause” with ongoing proxy activity. There’s roughly a 35–40% chance of a sharper escalation by year-end, according to current risk assessments. A genuine, durable peace deal remains unlikely.

SPX Levels

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The long-awaited peace deal between the U.S. and Iran is finally taking shape, with an MOU expected to kick off a 60-day window for final terms. While President Trump’s threat of military action if the deal fails adds a layer of uncertainty, the agreement is a major step toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

However don't expect a quick fix, clearing mines and restoring tanker traffic will take weeks, if not months. This supply delay is exactly what oil bulls are leaning on to keep WTI supported above $65.

DOLLAR REBOUND

The Fed has a new boss, and the "hand-holding" is officially over. Chairman Warsh isn't playing the game of predicting future moves, leaving the market to fend for itself. Please read our latest post-FOMC preview here.

Since investors now see a rate hike as a real possibility by year-end, the dollar is rallying. This is bad news for gold and silver; until the greenback cools off, expect precious metals to remain under significant pressure.

POSITIONING UPDATE

GOLD ETF

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The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. The vote was unanimous. No surprise on the rate itself.

Higher Rates for Longer

The Dot Plot update shows that the Fed now expects to keep interest rates higher for longer than it previously anticipated.

• The median projection for the federal funds rate in 2026 was raised from 3.4% to 3.8%.

• The forecast for core PCE inflation in 2026 was increased from 2.7% to 3.3%.

The Fed believes inflation will remain more persistent than it expected just a few months ago. Because of this, officials now see the need to hold interest rates at higher levels for a longer period to bring inflation back down to their 2% target.

The Fed is signaling that rate cuts will likely come later and be more gradual than markets had been pricing in. This is the main reason markets reacted negatively to the projections.

Fed Remarks:

• Economy is growing at a solid pace, despite uncertainty from the Middle East conflict.

• Productivity and investment remain strong.

• Labor market is stable — job gains match workforce growth and unemployment is little changed.

• Inflation is still too high, mainly due to supply shocks including higher energy prices (Iran conflict).

• Their projection is that inflation will be back at target in 2028 but that requires rates to stay higher through 2027.

Important Change

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Tomorrow is FOMC Meeting. The actual rate decision tomorrow isn’t the big deal. Markets already expect no hike, and with political pressure on the new Fed chair to ease policy, that’s not going to change.

What matters is Kevin Warsh. Jerome Powell had built real trust with markets over the years. People believed what he said. That trust is gone now, and Warsh has to earn it back starting tomorrow.

The main question is simple: Is he going to be independent, or will he just follow political pressure from the White House?

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Will he be honest about the data, even when it doesn’t line up with the push for lower rates?

• How does the market react right after he speaks — with confidence or skepticism?

• How clear is he on what would actually change rates going forward?

This is the first real test of how the Fed will work under new leadership. We’ll send you some thoughts tomorrow evening.

SPX Levels

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Just a quick note today. Market rallied on a Iran - USA peace deal. Let’s see how it all works out.

Our ALGO portfolio we opened last week Tuesday is up almost 9% since. We shared the prompt with you here in the letter.

Some days were red, there’s nothing we can do about it, overall performance on a year is more important. Rinse and repeat. TMAD Score strategy is high risk, high reward, very volatile strategy, that takes about 10 mins each 2 weeks and requires consistency.

We will be opening another portfolio on Thursday after FOMC. We have currenly 4 different dates running. That’s also possible strategy some traders do, they don’t want to have all portfolio in one basket, they spread it out for risk management purpose.

Play around with it and see what works for you!

Let’s see market update and trade updates.

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The S&P 500 is currently trading at extreme valuations by almost every major measure. Six different valuation frameworks, spanning revenue, assets, earnings, and long-term smoothed data, all show the market at or near multi-decade highs. There is virtually no disagreement between the metrics.

Revenue cannot be manipulated through accounting choices, yet the market trades at 3.65x sales, more than double the pre-2020 peak. Price-to-Book has also broken above the dot-com bubble high. Even when using smoothed, inflation-adjusted earnings through the Shiller CAPE, the reading of 41.20x remains extraordinarily elevated.

Real (inflation-adjusted) earnings per share are at record highs. However, prices have risen faster than earnings. The market is effectively pricing in continued strong margin expansion for years to come.

All six metrics converge on the same conclusion despite using different methodologies and timeframes. This consistency strengthens the signal. The only comparable period in modern history was the late 1990s dot-com bubble.

TMAD View

We view current valuations as stretched across the board. While strong earnings have supported the market, the combination of record-high multiples and limited room for further re-rating creates an asymmetric risk profile.

History shows that periods when multiple independent valuation measures simultaneously sit at extreme levels have typically been followed by below-average forward returns. The current setup is no exception in our view.

Investors should treat the market as expensive rather than cheap. Any further upside from here will likely need to come almost entirely from earnings growth rather than multiple expansion.

AI Capex Volatility

Hyperscalers like Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta are still pouring massive capital into AI infrastructure, with Goldman Sachs analysts projecting around $920 billion in spending for 2027, though actual outlays could reach $1.1–1.4 trillion as companies overspend in ways reminiscent of historical buildouts such as railroads and automobiles.

This higher spending would supercharge revenue for the “picks and shovels” providers of AI (chips like Nvidia, data center builders, power equipment, etc.), likely driving further short-term stock gains even as many of these names already trade at elevated valuations.

We are still in a momentum-driven market where regular companies have yet to show widespread, quantifiable AI-driven profits, creating clear winners and losers as adoption remains in its early stages.

These are all the reasons why, for now, we will focus mainly on trading momentum, which is clearly visible on our TMAD App, and our Score algorithmic trading comes in handy.

We don’t get stuck in names that are not moving, or even worse, moving lower. And there are plenty of those!

Market Pullback

As we said many times in our previous letters, we expected a much-needed pullback in June (2-4%). Further, we don’t expect a stalemate or crash. We believe the market will continue higher, but the summer will be volatile. There is a 10-15% correction potential leading into the Midterm. We will keep you updated about the signs.

We hedged perfectly this month.

Now let’s look at the Top 10 picks for the week and what index has the highest momentum and score.

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This week, I decided to do a video.

We will look at Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other crypto-related names.

$IBIT $ETHA $BMNR $SBET $HUT $IREN $CIFR $KEEL $MARA $RIOT $MSTR

Which one of these has the best setups for the next week?

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What a day! We hit the $720 in pre-market on SPY and bounced from this strong put wall, as mentioned yesterday.

Our agentic TOP 10 portfolio we opened with Public on Tuesday is up 8.95% today. I posted the link for agentic prompt for you on Tuesday. This is our model 10k portfolio, even people with small accounts can play this strategy.

10k can turn to 75k in 5 years of 50% yearly returns. One just needs to be discipline and dedicated.

SPX Levels

We gave you 7,395 as our top resistance for today. We closed at 7,394.31. Precision again. Market looking a bit better, we have SpaceX IPO tomorrow, that will be an interesting watch!

Resistance: 7,420 / 7,499

Support: 7,325 / 7,260

Ideally we close the rest of our hedges. We will be reopening them at some point again.

Commodities Update

With energy costs up over 23% this year, the average household is feeling the pressure, and the economy is splitting in two. This has sparked a broad selloff in precious metals as traders rush for the exits. The shift is simple: investors would rather hold cash than non-yielding metals while the Fed’s finger is hovering over the "hike" button.

Last week’s positioning in gold has sent strong warnings which gave us the information to remain ahead of the curve.

Now let’s check how traders are reacting over the PPI report.

POSITIONING UPDATE

GOLD ETF

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