The FOMC minutes released today have fundamentally shifted the narrative. A growing number of Federal Reserve officials are concerned that inflation is becoming entrenched, with many now openly discussing future rate hikes if price pressures don’t cool.

This directly challenges the market’s long-standing assumption that the next move would be a cut. When you combine hot inflation data, record consumer credit, and a hawkish Fed, the risks we’ve discussed are no longer theoretical—they are the new reality.

Despite the macro headwinds, two factors may provide a temporary cushion this week:

• Memorial Day Weekend: With the holiday on the horizon, many participants will step back early, potentially thinning out sell-side volume.

• Geopolitical Hope: Speculation is rising that President Trump may move to formally end the Iran conflict. Any official signal here would provide a massive, albeit perhaps temporary, lift to sentiment.

NVDA earnings are behind us crushing Wall Street estimates with record revenues of $81.6 billion (an 85% year-over-year increase) and adjusted earnings of $1.87 per share. The company also announced an $80 billion stock buyback program and raised its quarterly dividend to $0.25 from $0.01.

We can see call surge on SPY and QQQ but noth indexes are close to a resistances. SPY next target is $748-$750. (Please see our proprietary scanner at TMAD.app all our paid members have access to, you can use your email to sign up).

SPX Levels

SPX retested a bit below 10DMA and we see a book perfect flag retest and breakout.

Resistance: 7,500 / 7,600

Support: 7,410 / 7,400

Top Pics from Scanner and Trade Updates

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Sadly our cloud platform where we have our web app, server and database had an outage for a couple of hours thus I’m writing this late. We’ve never experienced it before in this magnitude, so sorry for that. I hope this will not happen again but if yes, we’ll have to move elsewhere.

Let’s do SPX update and look at some trades we have taken today and names that look good for the end of the week.

We also dissect NVDA earnings and structure iron condor trade for earnings.

We’re also going to look at the oil GEX, which is signaling the direction of the market for the next weeks.

Let’s begin!

Oil GEX

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As promised, updated setups and market preview.

We had our webinar today and went over risk management and how to structure your trades using TMAD App and technicals. Please watch it here:

We also looked at our trade log. We got stopped out of some names and it’s OK.

Market needs to retest and you can wait there and not trade, waiting for a retest who knows how long, or you trade a strategy and when market takes turn, you simple get stopped out and lose small.

If you’re losing big, you’re most likely oversizing and do not understand risk to reward structure of your trades. If that’s the case, please watch the video to the end.

We also launched new dark and light mode on the app. Can’t wait to hear your feedback. (Simply click on your avatar/photo icon and choose dark mode).

If you joined TMAD.app but don’t have subscription yet, you can upgrade Substack to paid and sign up with your email to the app.

Now, let’s look at the market, updated trade ideas and new SPX Levels + Top 10 score pics. (Unlock to see all 10 by becoming paying subscriber and get access to the TMAD App).

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Thanks to everyone who joined our webinar today at 1pm ET. Here is the recording.

We have another one tomorrow at 1pm ET for paid and free members. Link is here.

Now, let’s look at the market.

Last week, we watched the S&P 500 print a record close of 7,501 and the Nasdaq hit 26,635. On the surface, it looks like a relentless bull run. We saw some cracks beneath the surface due to scorching inflation data and a tightening geopolitical knot.

As we look toward the first FOMC meeting under Warsh in June, the “soft landing” narrative is being stress-tested by a potent cocktail of liquidity injections and rising energy costs. But Warsh is about to change how we measure PCE, which, even in high inflation, could mean rate cuts.

The $9.86 Billion Band-Aid

Behind the scenes, the financial “plumbing” is struggling. The Fed is set to pump $9.86 billion into the system next week to keep things moving. This is a strange move considering wholesale inflation (PPI) just hit 6%—triple what experts expected. The Fed is essentially trying to stabilize the system while price pressures are still accelerating.

The Inflation Metric Game

Incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has signaled he wants to change how we measure price increases. Since 2000, the Fed has used Core PCE (which ignores food and energy). Warsh favors Trimmed Mean PCE, which simply removes the most extreme price movements each month.

The practical difference: Trimmed Mean PCE currently reads 2.36%, while Core PCE sits at 3.20%. By switching metrics, Warsh isn’t actually lowering prices; he is mathematically moving the goalposts closer to a “victory” on inflation. It’s the same thing I saw in the Army. When the standard couldn’t be met, leadership would just quietly change the standard. It creates a way to justify rate cuts even when the cost of living remains high.

NVDA Earnings (May 20)

All eyes are on NVIDIA (NVDA) earnings this Wednesday after the close. The expectations are massive, with revenue projected near $78 billion. In this market, a “beat” isn’t enough; they need to show the AI build-out is accelerating. If NVDA stumbles, the liquidity the Fed is pumping in might not be enough to hold up the tech sector. We will be doing flow and detailed prep in our Tuesday letter.

Oil & The Iran Wildcard

WTI crude is near $99 and Brent is over $104, putting us in the “danger zone.” High oil means money spent at the pump is money not spent on tech or travel.

The real wildcard is the Strait of Hormuz. Negotiations with Iran have stalled, and if that passage (where 20% of the world’s oil flows) gets blocked, oil could gap to $150+ instantly. While markets sometimes rally once a conflict actually starts (the “Buy the Cannon” effect), this current uncertainty is a huge weight on global growth.

SPX Levels

Looking at the SPX chart, the momentum remains technically bullish, but the “exhaustion” signs are manifesting:

• Resistance: The index is currently testing the 10DMA. The resistance levels are 7,430 - 7,548 zone.

• Support: 7,390 and 7,282. A breach of these levels would signal that the liquidity high is finally wearing off.

TOP 10 Trade Ideas from TMAD Scanner

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Something feels different about this crypto bear market. If you’ve been watching the screens lately, you might agree that the old “rules” of the four-year cycle are being rewritten in real-time.

For weeks, Bitcoin’s price action has been quietly defiant. While the “standard” crypto bear market historically lasts about 12 months and often seeing drawdowns of 70% to 85% from peak to trough, the current environment is showing remarkable structural integrity. As of May 14, 2026, Bitcoin sits at approximately $78,200, roughly 38% below its cycle peak.

To put that in perspective, at this exact same point in previous cycles, the 2017-2018 bear market had collapsed by 70%, and the 2013-2015 cycle was down 80%. We aren’t seeing the same “death spiral” dynamics. Instead, we are seeing a “sticky” resilience.

Why is this cycle different?

This relative resilience isn’t an accident. It is being driven by three primary structural shifts:

• Muted Bull Market: The preceding upside was less “bubbly,” leaving less speculative excess to unwind.

• ETF Inflows: Spot Bitcoin ETFs have now recorded six consecutive weeks of positive inflows, providing a consistent institutional “bid” that didn’t exist in prior years.

• Corporate Accumulation: Led by MicroStrategy’s massive 818,000 BTC position, corporate treasuries are now treating Bitcoin as a permanent reserve asset rather than a trade.

The Regulatory Hurdle: The CLARITY Act

The setup for a recovery is clearly visible in the data, but the confirmation is still missing. This week, the market hit a wall of regulatory and macro friction.

The CLARITY Act hearing on May 14 served as a major volatility catalyst. While the Senate Banking Committee successfully advanced the bill in a 15-9 vote, the debate revealed deep divisions. The legislation aims to create a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, similar to what the Genius Act did for stablecoins, but it faced sharp criticism regarding “illicit finance vulnerabilities” and its treatment of DeFi.

The market’s “wait-and-see” approach was further complicated by the confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve on May 13. While Warsh is respected for his deep understanding of financial markets, his confirmation was one of the most divisive in Fed history (54-45), adding a layer of political uncertainty to an already tense macro environment.

GEX Analysis a Technicals: BTC, ETH, IBIT, ETHA, MSTR, COIN, IREN, HUT, KEEL

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We are thrilled to welcome so many new members to the community! This is your final three-hour window to lock in our original pricing of $42 monthly or $399 yearly for our Substack, which includes full access to the TMAD app. At midnight, prices will increase, don’t miss your chance to secure these rates and elevate your trading journey today!

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Upcoming App Demo Webinars

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Momentum Score Upgrade

a) To execute this strategy, trade top 10 stocks at a time with an equal capital allocation for each position. Allow the trades to run for 14 days (10 business days), maintaining a 10% stop-loss on the overall portfolio. Sell after 14 days and allocate to a new round.

b) If you want to select names from the list that align with your personal trading preferences, you need to pay attention and understand technical analysis and risk management.

If you have trouble with understanding technicals, structuring trades with proper risk management, please join our educational webinars.

Next educational webinars is next week:

Thursday, May 21, at 8:30pm ET - Meeting ID: 857 3726 7956 / Passcode: 384166

(All webinars are recorded for later viewing)

That’s it for today, have a nice Friday and we’ll be back with updates over the weekend,

Cheers,

Team at TMAD

The blockade in the Strait of Hormuz is causing a massive copper shortage, pushing prices to all-time highs. Even though Iran is still holding out on a deal, investors are surprisingly piling into gold and silver at the same time.

This is happening because companies are reporting huge earnings, mostly driven by the massive demand for AI data centers. It’s a rare moment where everything, from industrial metals to precious metals, is moving up together because the world needs these materials to keep the AI revolution going.

POSITIONING UPDATE

Over the last few weeks, we’ve seen a huge wave of money move into copper miners (COPX) as traders bet on a big comeback. They clearly saw the reversal coming, and now that copper prices are hitting record highs due to supply shortages and the massive build-out of AI data centers.

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We just shipped a major upgrade to TMAD.app: the TMAD Momentum Score.

TMAD already gives you the signal density you need, from momentum to options flow. But data requires the right execution mindset. If you’re trading momentum, you don’t want money sitting around or hold bags. You want capital efficiency and setups ready to move now.

We designed the Momentum Score to answer one question: Which stocks are actually setting up to break out?

The score is a single dynamic number (0–100) ranking the strength of a stock’s setup for a 14-day horizon.

• Rank-anchored: A score of 92 means the setup is currently stronger than 92% of the 1000+ stocks we track.

• Continuously sharpening edge: An agentic research system refines the scoring model to target the highest-probability setups.

• Rigorously tested: Validated against out-of-sample historical data to ensure reliability.

  

The Score in Action

On the new Score page, you can track exactly how the model performs:

• 73% Hit Rate on our rolling top-10 basket.

• 2.18 Sharpe Ratio across a 14-month backtest.

• +130.1% Total Return beating the S&P 500.

How to use it: Sort your Scanner or Watchlist by score to rank the market top to bottom. Click the strongest names to confirm the setup.

Thousands of stocks move every day. The Momentum Score spots the opportunity so you can focus on names that matter.

Check out the new column on your dashboard, or start directly on the Score page to view the daily picks and full backtest distributions.

See Today's Picks

Please don’t buy those names blindly! You always must look at technical chart (on TMAD app or your charting software/broker) and plan the trade with proper risk management.

IMPORTANT: We’re going to increase the subscription price in the next 24-hours, by Friday May 15th, midnight ET. Please lock it in now for $42 or $399 for yearly.

Now, let’s look at the SPX/NDX Levels and Trade Log Updates.

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As I mentioned over the last couple of days, we were very overextended and a pullback was much needed. We might not be done yet; there are still open gaps below on the SPY and QQQ. Keep an open mind and avoid going aggressively long at this point.

Selective trades based on scanner. As noted yesterday, we have been trailing stops for good reason.

Case Study from today:

Our scanner caught RXT today. It was moving extremely fast, so we hopped on quickly; however, you can filter through those names yourself using the scanner.

When searching, I look for highest momentum first (by clicking on the momentum button under screener to categorize from highest or lowest).

From there, I identify tickers with significant GEX activity, such as call surge. To confirm a trade, I require positive GEX and a Relative Volume (RVOL) higher than 1. I picked and hit it hard.

This is exactly how you find names that are flying or about to fly. The screener is very simple once you follow that flow.

(Same works for shorting, you need high momentum, put surge and negative GEX).

Please join us for our weekly chat tomorrow at 11am ET, with Alessio and I.

Now, let’s dive quickly into the SPX and NDX levels and do our trade log update:

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Market keeps grinding higher and momentum stocks are ripping.

We trailed some stops (see trade log below) and executed/ closed some trades today as well. We went over charts in our webinar and explained how to use our TMAD.app

If you missed it, link is here.

Let’s do a quick update on SPX and discuss the semi conductor frenzy in regards to the 1999/ 2000. Is this threat real?

Let’s look at similarities and differences.

The Great Divide: Is This 1999 All Over Again?

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Please join us:

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Lia

The market continues to grind higher, and while we are currently overextended and due for a retest, we haven’t seen any definitive signals of a reversal yet. Even if a retest occurs, we expect the market to move toward the 10-day Moving Average (DMA) and continue its upward trajectory as long as we hold above it.

In today’s letter, we will review our open trades, discuss trailing stops to lock in gains, and highlight new opportunities for the week that are exhibiting incredible momentum. The market environment remains favorable, and now is the time to capitalize on these moves before the typically “choppy” summer season arrives.

See the chart, we’re crazy standard deviation far from 50DMA so I wouldn’t not freakout to see a retest. But let’s see and never underestimate the power of momentum.

Resistance: 7,410 / 7, 450

Support: 7,390 / 7,350

Managing the Roadmap: SPX Levels

Before diving into individual tickers, let’s look at the SPX levels for tomorrow. Understanding the daily “expected moves” allows you to identify approximately where the market might land, whether up or down.

Why does this matter?

• Emotional Discipline: If you see the market retesting or selling off, knowing where the next support level lies keeps you calm.

• Precision Entries: You can time your long entries around these key support zones. When the SPX bounces, high-quality individual names often follow suit.

• A Roadmap for Fear: It is natural to feel uneasy when your positions turn red, but viewing the SPX chart can provide a roadmap. If the index is approaching a major bounce zone, it may prevent you from closing a position prematurely before your stop loss is actually hit.

Whether you use these levels to guide your swing trades or to trade SPX options directly, having this macro view is essential for navigating the volatility.

Portfolio Review & New Momentum Trades

We are currently monitoring our open swing trades. According to our scanner, many are seeing a significant Call Surgeand high Relative Volume (RVOL). Conversely, for the names showing negative momentum or entering downtrends, we will reevaluate our thesis below.

Let’s get into the data!

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The first week of May 2026 has been a pivot point for the markets. A sudden legislative thaw in Washington acted as the catalyst, sending Bitcoin through a psychological barrier and shifting the broader “risk-on” sentiment into high gear.

Here is the breakdown of the major moves and what they mean for the coming weeks.

The Breakthrough: Bitcoin and the CLARITY Act

The primary driver of this week’s rally was the CLARITY Act compromise. By distinguishing between “bank-like” stablecoin yields and rewards tied to platform utility, regulators finally cleared a path for major players like Coinbase and Circle.

• Market Reaction: Bitcoin surged past $80,000, its highest point since February.

• The Next Hurdle: All eyes are now on the 200-day Moving Average (around $83,000). Historically, this level serves as the “Great Divide”—if Bitcoin claims it, the rally likely shifts from a bounce to a sustained recovery. A rejection here, however, could turn $80,000 back into a ceiling.

The Institutional “Wall of Money”

While retail sentiment remains cautious, the data reveals a massive transfer of ownership.

• Record Accumulation: Institutional participants net-purchased 50,351 BTC in Q1 2026—the largest quarter on record.

• The Absorption Rate: Institutions are buying Bitcoin at 2.8 times the rate of new production. Effectively, they are vacuuming up the supply shed by retail sellers (shorter-term holders), who offloaded roughly 62,000 BTC this quarter.

What’s Next?

The Senate Banking Committee is expected to schedule a markup for the CLARITY Act as early as the week of May 11. Until then, the market is likely to trade on the tension surrounding that $83k level. If the legislation moves forward and the technical resistance breaks, a path toward $90,000 begins to look less like a dream and more like a target.

Now, let’s look at charts and levels on crypto, miners and other related stocks such as:

BTC, ETH, IREN, MARA, CIFR, HUT, MSTR, and COIN.

Let’s begin!

BITCOIN - BTC

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Oil has officially dropped back below $100, and for good reason. Axios just reported that the U.S. and Iran are finally looking at a draft deal to end the war, and traders are jumping all over it by selling off their oil positions. President Trump is under massive pressure to get gas prices down before the midterm elections, especially since his approval rating on the economy has slumped to 34%.

On top of that, U.S. debt interest is becoming a nightmare, with bond yields hitting nearly 5%, the government is basically paying a fortune just to keep the lights on. The market is betting that Trump needs this deal to survive, so the 'war prices' are vanishing.

That unusual put flow our scanner caught yesterday was the ultimate 'heads-up.' It showed that traders were already betting on a massive drop before the news even broke. People were clearly rushing to get ahead of a potential deal, trying to 'call the top' of the oil market.

POSITIONING UPDATE

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Quick update,

The market is an absolute monster. We’re still holding above 10DMA and market is grinding higher. We will post SPX levels at the end of this letter. We’re going to do earnings prep on and (valuations, Gamma call and put walls, levels and flow incl. market makers positioning).

We’re going to pick the strongest candidate for explosive move as well, based on our scanner criteria.

Let’s begin!

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The SPX remains positioned above the 10DMA. We saw a standard retest yesterday as geopolitical escalations in the Middle East introduced some volatility, but this remains a healthy sign of a robust market.

Markets rarely move in a straight line; seeing the index catch up to the 10-day moving average and hold above it confirms we are still in a firm uptrend. Even a deeper retest would be acceptable following this historic rally. We will continue to monitor the situation in the Middle East for signs of stabilization.

Key Technical Levels

The 20DMA is currently trailing near 7,040.

• Resistance: 7,210 / 7,240

• Support: 7,170 / 7,103

NDX Levels

Resistance: 27,840 / 27,700

Support: 27,610 / 27,440

Trade Ideas and Trade Book

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Welcome to our weekly market prep. This week (May 4–10, 2026), markets are entering the first full week of May with major U.S. indices near or at all-time highs, driven by strong corporate earnings and a tech/AI rally, though tempered by elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions. We have some data this week as well:

• Tuesday: JOLTS job openings.

• Wednesday: ADP private payrolls.

• Friday: Nonfarm payrolls (consensus ~175K added), unemployment (~4.1%).

We also have bunch of earnings. Some notable ones we will look at this week and post levels and GEX analysis:

Today:

Monday letter:

Tuesday letter:

Wednesday letter:

Some of the crypto related names reporting this week, we posted flow in today’s letter ($MSTR, $HUT, $IREN).

We’re going to post the TOP 10 Picks for this week based on our scanner and also a bonus stock.

Let’s begin!

Palantir Technologies (PLTR)

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Welcome to our crypto report. Not much has changed in terms of macro since last week, so let’s get straight to the actionable charts and options flow. There is a name that’s finally getting out of the downtrend. Let’s talk about it.

BITCOIN - $BTC

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Oil prices are back at $110, and the pressure on President Trump is becoming intense. He’s stuck between a rock and a hard place: his poll numbers are tanking because of high gas prices, but talks with Iran are failing because neither side wants to back down.

Iran wants the U.S. to leave the Middle East, which Trump refuses to do. Now, there are growing fears that he might scrap the ceasefire and turn to military force to break the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. Everyone is watching for the next headline, as the current 'peace' looks more like a mirage every day.

The unusual call activity we caught on last week was a perfect signal. It put us ahead of the crowd right before this massive breakout happened

Published last week:

Now let’s go straight into today’s positioning update:

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Just a quick note for all our new members. If you’d like to start using our app, please visit www.tmad.app/signup.

When you arrive, sign up first rather than trying to sign in. Please use the same email address associated with your Substack account. If you are a Gmail user, you can simply use the “Sign in with Google” option for immediate access.

Helpful Resources:

• App Tutorials: Click the chat button in the bottom right corner to speak with Alessio. He can answer any questions regarding the app’s technical features.

• Support & Membership: For billing or membership inquiries, email lia@tmad.app or send a DM here.

• Weekly Q&A: Join our community chat every Wednesday at 11:00 AM ET to ask any trade-related questions. Lia focuses on TA and Alessio GEX, we combine them for the best interpretations.

Our earnings report from yesterday did very well thus far.

A lot can happen until tomorrow but made it above the $265 strong game level, so far and hit $276 in after hours. Let’s see how the price develops tomorrow but $280 is likely.

- wonderful price action to the $360 gamma wall and now marching higher, let’s see if we hit $380 tomorrow. We had high expectations and Google delivered.

as we said will be chopping and cooling off and what a nice price action. Bad news were already priced in, and downside was limited. We also saw the name on a support in our app, but still what a nice surprise!

AAPL Earnings Prep

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