The U.S. dollar is climbing fast against major currencies like the euro and the pound as Europe's energy crunch sparks a frantic rush for cash to cover margin calls ahead of winter.

Analysts are sounding the alarm over severe diesel shortages, which is pushing government bond yields higher and since the U.S. is the main exporter of these fuels, long-term bond yields are feeling the heat right along with European peers.

DOLLAR FUND ETF

Smart money is leaning hard into the dollar, with big long positions stacking up on UUP with eyes locked on the $30 mark. Because the euro makes up the lion's share of the index, that kind of upside momentum in the greenback is going to pull EUR/USD straight down toward 1.10.

POSITIONING UPDATE

GOLD ETF

Read more

Sorry for no update yesterday. I had some awful dental work done and I was in the worst imaginable pain. So today, let’s look at some macro data, SPX levels (we’re breaking down cluster of supports), and some trade ideas.

As most of this year, geopolitical risk is elevated again. Consumer confidence just collapsed to 81.9 from 88.6 in August. PCE lands today, and jobs land Friday. Both matter.

There are not many great setups right now. That is why we did not take many new trades. Markets do not always offer clean entries. Respecting that is part of the process.

The week’s defining number

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 81.9. That is the lowest reading since 2014 and well below what economists expected.

That drop raises a simple question for Wednesday’s PCE report: does spending still show the surge many expected, near 0.7% to 0.8%, or has the August retail-sales strength already started to fade?

Friday’s jobs report is the next test. Can the labor market hold up after this drop in confidence, or does the weakness start to show there too? The Fed’s problem is the same as it has been: weak confidence on one side, inflation that is still too high on the other.

Iran is the headline. Yields are the bigger issue.

Geopolitical markets can turn on one surprise. The Iran situation is that kind of catalyst. The effect on oil is real and immediate. has been down towards $92 now, let’s see if it keeps going lower, which would be great, but the larger pressure is still in Treasuries.

Bond prices are falling. Yields are rising.

The 10-year has been trading around the mid-5% area, and the 30-year recently hit its highest level since 2002. That is the bigger elephant in the room.

What we are watching

Read more

Stocks finished last week higher (S&P 500 ~7,743) even with the 10-year yield around 5.17%.

This week is a data gauntlet: August PCE (Wed) and September Non-farm payrolls on Friday, (8:30am) - consensus +90k to +100k (vs +162k in Aug), unemployment 4.1%.

Plus we have a pile of Fed speakers. Consensus leans “labor still okay, inflation still sticky” — which keeps the hawkish bias intact.

RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is expected to hike Tuesday.

Quick Watchlist

• MU (Wed AMC) — memory/AI proxy.

• NKE (Thu AMC) — consumer read.

• CCL / KMX (Tue) — travel and used-car demand.

• Rates, USD, and oil if data surprises. Crypto will trade the same macro (jobs + PCE).

There’re some very good looking setups out there, including the indexes. Let’s check them out and chart SPX levels for tomorrow.

Read more

U.S. diesel prices have hit a record high of $6.50 a gallon. Because fuel costs are so high, everyday shoppers have less money to spend, and people are starting to worry that inflation is getting out of hand, which is pushing government bond yields up to levels we haven’t seen since 2007.

This energy crisis is piling up from multiple directions:

• Extreme Heat: A scorching summer in Europe caused a massive surge in demand for fuel.

• Supply Blockages: Key shipping lanes like the Strait of Hormuz are still shut down, and drone strikes have hit major oil refineries in Russia.

• A Tough Winter Ahead: Because of these shortages, Europe is staring down a very difficult winter.

At the same time, U.S. oil refineries are running flat-out at maximum speed to try and help, which leaves them dangerously vulnerable if a machine breaks down or needs sudden repairs.

The Trump administration is reportedly weighing a ban on diesel exports to cool domestic fuel costs. However, such a move would create a worst-case scenario for European markets while backfiring domestically: forced reductions in refinery output to prevent inventory gluts would ultimately constrain distillate slates and drive U.S. gasoline prices significantly higher.

POSITIONING UPDATE

GASOLINE

Read more

Quick Tuesday update. Market took a little breather after that monster rally.

SPX levels for Wednesday:

Resistance: 7,900/ 7.815
Support: 7,750 / 7,688

Trade Ideas

There are some great looking, clean setups into today and end of this week. Some names definitely need to catch up on the semi-conductor rally.

Let’s look at those with great score, unusual flow and clean technical setup!

Read more

SPX broke out of the flag and oil was down 4 days in row. We are moving higher for now, but as stated in our very long and detailed report from Sunday, we will pay attention to 3 indicators to see if we’re out of the woods or this is just a chance to offload some high-beta positions. Most of our trades did very well, we gave you META including GEX at 750, which we hit in fury yesterday, AMD, and crypto is also seeing strong momentum and it could be the trade into the EOY.

SPX levels

Resistance: 7,815 / 7,900

Support: 7,750 / 7,6888

We took some profits yesterday and we will see how we retest this monster move. is breaking out also now. Give on Sunday and last week. Sometimes you wait for the setups some days until they get to our entry levels and sometimes they fail. Important is to have strict risk management and leave losers fast.

Let’s see some trade updates:

Read more

In this letter, we want to dive into the current market situation and potential risks and levels we think the market may need to reach to reprice today’s valuations. We spoke about this many times in our past letters. We’ll also go into detail on how we’re planning to structure our portfolios over the next few months.

Let’s begin!

On Wednesday the Fed raised rates to 3.75%–4.00%. First hike since July 2023. As we wrote in our morning prep that day, everyone expected a hike and it wasn’t a surprise.

But what is then new? The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.04%, the highest since 2007. Oil is above $100. Diesel just set a record at $6.49 a gallon. Nine months ago oil was near $60 and markets still expected rate cuts.

A whole regime changed in just nine months.

Bonds moved before the Fed did

Normally the 10-year yield barely moves in the year before the first hike. This time it jumped about a full percentage point first. The bond market forced the Fed’s hand.

After a first hike, history says the 10-year often keeps rising. From 5%, that path points toward 6% by next spring and maybe 6.4% at the peak, a level last seen around 2000. In the 1970s it rose even more.

People assume this is inflation fear. It isn’t. The market’s long-run inflation forecast (the “breakeven”) is still about 2.3%. It has barely moved since last winter. Yields went up because investors want more pay to lock money up for 10 or 30 years, a higher real rate and a fatter risk premium on Treasuries. That is the quiet risk.

It also decides the dollar. And the dollar decides almost everything else.

The Fed is not done and the White House hates that.

In three months the Fed raised its forecasts for growth and inflation and cut its forecast for unemployment. Stronger economy, hotter prices, tighter jobs market. Nothing in that table says “pause.”

Officials now see rates at 4.1% at the end of 2026 and still 4.1% in 2027. Sixteen of eighteen expect another hike this year. Inflation does not get back to 2% until 2029.

After you subtract inflation, the real policy rate is only about +0.5%.

The political problem is the other side of the table. About two weeks before the meeting, President Trump threatened to cut off trade with countries that run a surplus against the U.S. if the Fed did not cut. After the hike he said rates should be 1% or less.

We have seen this movie.

In the 1970s, under pressure, the Fed kept real rates negative. Inflation came back at 13%. The dollar fell about 17%. Then Volcker pushed real rates very high. Inflation collapsed, the dollar soared, and stocks eventually boomed.

Real rates and the dollar move together. Half a point of real rate, with a president demanding 1%, is not a strong-dollar setup. That is the fork in the road: 1994 (yields up, dollar down) or 2022 (yields up, dollar up).

Profits are fine. The price tag is not.

Company earnings are roaring. Second-quarter S&P 500 profits were up 51% from a year earlier. Over the last four quarters they are up 26%. A lot of that is AI spending — the big tech firms may spend about $800 billion this year.

But the market is paying less for those earnings. The forward P/E dropped from 23 times last year to about 19 times now. At Friday’s close of 7,650, that implies about $400 of forward earnings.

In late 2018, earnings were strong, the P/E shrank hard, and from September to December the S&P fell about 20% and the Nasdaq about 24%. In 2022 the S&P lost 18% (including dividends) and the Nasdaq 33%. Both times, yields and the dollar were rising. Record profits did not save anyone.

Bonds did not help either. In 2022 the main U.S. bond index lost 13%, its worst year on record. When inflation is above about 3%, stocks and bonds often fall together. Inflation is 3.7% now. Do not count on bonds as a shield.

Three different ways of looking at the same market land in the same zone:

• A 2018-style squeeze (earnings still growing, multiple down to 16x) → about 7,400

• A typical high-inflation hiking cycle (stocks down ~7.5% in four months) → about 7,100

• The lowest year-end target among Wall Street strategists (Bank of America) → 7,100

Call that cluster 7,100 to 7,400.

That is not a crash call. If oil falls back below $100 and this stays a slow, “one more hike then hold” cycle, 8,000+ is still possible. If oil stays high, the next four months are the rough ones.

One more 2022 lesson: energy stocks rose 66% that year while the S&P fell 18%. In this kind of cycle, oil is a hedge.

The S&P is still up 58% from the April 2025 low and 21% from the March 2026 low. That pre-hike rally is normal. The hard part starts after the first hike.

Why the multiple is falling

At 19 times earnings, stocks yield about 5.3%. The 10-year Treasury yields 5.0%. You are barely paid extra to own stocks instead of a government bond. On some measures that gap is already gone. Last time it was this thin was around 2000.

That is why a profit boom is not lifting the index. Higher yields ate the valuation.

Gold follows the dollar, not the Fed

After past first hikes, gold usually wobbles, then firms, unless the dollar surges.

When the dollar was flat or weak (2004, 2015), gold rose. When the dollar ripped higher (2022), gold fell 13%. The Fed hike does not write gold’s next six months. The dollar does.

Central banks also changed the game. They bought more than 1,000 tonnes of gold a year from 2022 through 2024. Buying slowed to 863 tonnes in 2025, but they are still net buyers. That bid does not care about real yields the way hedge funds do.

So gold is really a dollar forecast: 2015 rerun, or 2022 rerun.

Three different methods point to the same area on the S&P 500: about 7,100 to 7,400.

• If investors pay less for earnings (a lower P/E), the index lands near 7,400

• If this hike cycle looks like past high-inflation cycles, the index can fall toward 7,100 in the first few months.

• The most cautious Wall Street year-end target is 7,100.

One method would be easy to ignore. Three landing in the same place is a level to plan for.

That is not a forecast that the S&P will go there. It is the zone where stocks would start to look reasonably priced again versus bonds. Right now they barely pay you extra for the extra risk.

To get from today’s 7,650 down into that zone, several things would have to stay uncomfortable: another Fed hike still on the table, long-term yields already high, a policy rate that is not tight enough to send the dollar sharply higher but is high enough to keep pressure on stock valuations, and a White House pushing for 1% rates.

What actually decides the path:

• Oil. Below $100, the market can drift toward 7,900+. Above $100, the next few months are usually the hardest.

• The dollar. A weaker dollar helps gold. A much stronger dollar does not.

• Bond yields. If investors keep demanding more yield to hold long Treasuries, 5% on the 10-year is the start of the move. If they stop, 5% can be the high.

Watch those three. The next Fed statement will mostly explain what they already did.

So how do we prepare and position for this? See TMAD detailed plan.

We treat 7,100–7,400 as a planning zone. We prepare by deciding now what we will own, what we will buy, and what we will not use as a hedge. Best is to act only when the evidence picks a path.

This is not a financial advice. Position size around your time horizon, tax situation, and whether you need this money in the next 1–3 years.

TMAD PLAN:

Hold

Read more

The market closed above our second resistance and we’re back in a bullish manner. Traders trust Warsh a bit more now, and the market took the rate hike positively. How long that lasts, we don’t know, but so far we’ll trade the price action and take it day by day.

We added some trades and found new trade ideas. Please see below.

SPX Levels

Resistance: 7,666 / 7,758
Support: 7,628 / 7,594 and longer-term support 7,517.

Our year-end target, and the level at which to exercise some caution or add hedges is

Read more

Yesterday’s FOMC delivery validated our cautious stance, bringing a decisively hawkish pivot as core CPI confirms that persistent inflationary pressures are re-accelerating through the domestic economy.

Notably, surging year-over-year core import prices highlighted an external source of imported inflation bleeding into the system despite a soft dollar. This dynamic underscores the necessity for the Federal Reserve to continue leveraging higher rates to fortify the greenback and neutralize the threat of a widening price-wage spiral.

The Swiss Franc has tumbled to a multi-year low as investors abandon traditional safe-haven assets to rotate aggressively back into the dollar. This under-the-radar shift poses a direct threat to the consensus debasement narrative, particularly given that the CHF historically functions as a leading macro barometer for structural gold trends.

POSITIONING UPDATE

Read more

Markets have already voted. Prediction platforms put a 25bp hike to 3.75–4.00% at 80–97% (CME FedWatch ~86–90%, Polymarket 79.5%, Fisclear 97%). That is unusual conviction heading into a meeting.

Warsh said he would take his cues from the market, specifically real rates and the Treasury curve, while admitting that reading those signals is “an imperfect business.” The signal is no longer modest. The 10-year is at its highest level since 2007. Long-term Treasuries are pressing above 5%.

In July the Committee was already 9–3 hawkish, with no dovish dissents and three members pushing for higher rates before the August inflation prints. On the data Warsh himself cited, a hike is the more coherent move. A hold is still available. He already said markets can mislead.

Core CPI is 2.4% y/y; the headline spike is energy (gasoline +3.9% m/m, energy +16.3% y/y). Geopolitics is unsettled. Trump has publicly pressed for lower rates and appointed Warsh, so there is almost no political cost to standing still. All of that gives him room to hold without inventing a new framework, even if it stretches the one he already stated.

That stretch is the point. If the data, the curve, and the prediction markets all point the same way and the Committee holds anyway, the question is no longer “what does the model say.” It is whether the FOMC can still be trusted to act on its own doctrine. Credibility, once spent that way, is expensive to rebuild.

Let’s see today.

Hope you took our swing trade yesterday. It was our first posted trade on the watchlist. The momentum was incredible!

There are some powerful setups into this weeks and for later on today, in case the market picks up momentum to the upside.

Let’s start!

Read more

Some nice setups showing up but we still have FOMC rate decision tomorrow so we advise to wait and not get chopped up.

Here are some great setups I’m putting on my watchlist for this week. Also adding SPX levels.

Read more

The Fed decision this Wednesday is the main event of the week. Oil and geopolitical developments remain a swing factor for inflation and risk appetite. Over the past six months, and especially the past three, we’ve seen momentum rotate into oil, shipping tankers, energy, and healthcare, then suddenly sell off hard as money moves into tech and high-beta names. Those then chop down, and momentum swings back into the war-related names. It’s a tough trading environment, and I think we’ll see more chop until Wednesday.

We can sit here and speculate about what the Fed will do and what the market will do. The FedWatch tool is now showing an 86.5% probability of a rate hike. We need to be patient and play the price action after the announcement.

We’ll share some trade ideas into this week, based on the flow on our scanner, but it makes sense to wait for a retest of the first breakout to play it safer on a week like this. We’ll also look at SPX levels for tomorrow and the longer term.

Let’s begin!

TRADE IDEAS

Read more

Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global, the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund, at about $2.3–2.4 trillion, has proposed cutting its U.S. Treasury allocation by nearly $80 billion.

That is not a dump of the dollar. Bond-index dollar exposure barely moves, from 52.9% to 52.5%. The mix changes: less U.S. government debt, more other dollar assets — agency mortgage-backed securities, government-related bonds, and investment-grade credit — as the fund hunts for higher expected returns.

The signal still matters. Sovereign debt is rising. Inflation risk is back. Governments can keep issuing paper. In that setup, scarce assets get more valuable over time. This is not $80 billion flowing into Bitcoin. It isn’t. But the broader trade is hard to ignore: 21 million bitcoin. Unlimited dollars. You do the math. 🚀₿

This week saw incredible flows into crypto and crypto proxies. Here’re some names on our TMAD scanner. Unlock all the data for all crypto names by upgrading to paid and having access to TMAD App. Use our September special code LIASK20 for 20% lifetime discount.

Now let’s look at positioning and charts with trading levels on some our our favorite names: $BTC $ETH $ETHA $BMNR $IBIT $KEEL $HUT $IREN $MARA

Read more

August PPI came in mixed but energy-heavy, and markets sold off on the combination of that print plus another big oil spike tied to the Iran conflict.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.4% month-over-month (seasonally adjusted), matching the consensus forecast. Year-over-year it was +5.4%.

• Goods jumped 1.1%, almost entirely from energy (+4.2%). Diesel surged 24.1%.

• Services were muted at +0.1%.

• Core PPI (ex-food and energy) rose 0.2%, a bit softer than the 0.3% expected.

• A broader “core” measure excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.3%.

The headline number was as-expected, but the energy surge (driven by Middle East supply fears) kept inflation pressures visible heading into Friday’s CPI and next week’s Fed meeting. July’s reading was revised slightly higher.

This resulted in the market breaking down toward our strong 7,600 support level and even trading below it. We are now in bearish momentum. To get back into the range and remove this pressure, we need a breakout above the cluster of resistance up to at least 7,610. If support at 7,570 and 7,528 gives way, there is little to stop a move lower toward longer-term support at 7,290.

Heavy put-call skew in both zero-day and CPI-expiry options already leans toward a modest relief bounce as Friday’s most likely path. Even so, dealers are treating the CPI print as the week’s main event: the implied one-day move is about 59 points, roughly a third larger than what was priced into PPI.

Friday Trading Levels:

Resistance: 7,591 / 7,610

Support: 7,570 / 7,528

7 Ways to Protect Your Portfolio Heading Into Fall

Read more

Recent escalations between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia have poured fuel on bullish oil bets, creating a complex crosscurrent as the Trump administration scrambles to contain the yield curve and lower corporate borrowing costs.

At the same time, major retail stocks are taking a beating and slashing guidance for upcoming quarters as consumers aggressively pull back on discretionary spending.

This squeeze is becoming the ultimate stress test for the macro landscape: tracking precisely when pinched households hit their absolute breaking point, and whether that consumer exhaustion tips the broader economy over the edge into a high-risk recessionary cycle.

RETAIL ETF broke below 200 moving average

POSITIONING UPDATE

Read more

SPX sold off again, and we’re continuing in this chop. Since early June, aside from four trending days at the beginning of August, this has been our destiny. We have PPI/CPI this week and FOMC next week, plus it’s midterms. Honestly, this is expected price action until then, when the market gets some certainty. Plus, the war with Iran doesn’t make it any easier. Read the full report from Sunday.

I welcomed a baby boy on Sunday, September 6th. He’s healthy and sleeps a lot and I’ll keep writing updates as usual. We also have an active options trader in our Discord. If you’d like to take advantage of our Labor Day / back-to-school discount, use code LIASK20 for 20% off both Substack and Discord. Upgrading to yearly comes with an even larger discount on both (almost 40%).

Now, let’s look at SPX levels and the updated trade log.

Read more

Hope you had a lovely long weekend. Last week seemed quiet boring with the S&P 500 gaining just 0.1%, the Nasdaq 0.4%, while the Dow slipped 0.3%, and the Russell 2000 finished basically flat.

The real story was oil and bond yields. Escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz sent WTI crude up roughly 9% to $91/barrel, while the U.S. 10-year yield briefly hit 4.81%, its highest since November 2023.

The theme was simple: oil up, yields up, stocks down.

Then Friday’s jobs report came in much hotter than expected. Stocks sold off, short-term yields hit fresh 52-week highs, and a potential Fed hike jumped back into the conversation. The VIX still closed at just 14.53.

Oil Ran the Show

Every big move this week came from oil. WTI jumped about 9% after Iran tensions around Hormuz flared up, and stocks moved the other way almost tick for tick.That’s a supply shock. It hits yields first, then valuations. Energy held up. Rate-sensitive names and discretionary got hit.When oil is driving, the rest of the market is just reacting.

The Global Bond Squeeze

Japanese, UK, French, and German 10-year yields all hit multi-year or multi-decade highs. That drains liquidity from risk assets everywhere. When global duration is getting marked down at the same time, the bid for equities has to work harder just to stand still.

U.S. yields did the heavy lifting at home:

• 10-year tagged 4.81% intraday and closed near 4.78%

• 2-year printed a 52-week high at 4.374%

• 5-year made a new 52-week high at 4.545%

• 30-year sits at 5.24%

The front end is doing the repricing. That is the part that matters for the Fed path, financing costs, and growth-stock discount rates.

Payrolls Blew Past Estimates

August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 versus +55,000 expected. July was revised up to +21K from -23K. The three-month average now sits at +71K.

Unemployment held at 4.1%, though labor force participation fell to 61.4%, a five-year low. That last piece is the one people will argue over. The headline print is not soft. Good news became bad news. A blowout jobs number sent stocks lower because it hands the Fed cover to hike.

FOMC in September

Rate-hike odds for the Sept 15–16 FOMC swung from 65% to 51% to 61% in five days. Governor Chris Waller cooled things Thursday by saying he leans toward holding. We’re also inclining towards that thesis, even though Friday’s jobs print heated them right back up. December still carries the first fully priced hike. That is the setup into next week’s meeting: the market is no longer pricing a clean “hold and wait” path as if growth is rolling over. It is pricing a firm labor market as well.

Breadth Quietly Narrowed

Participation shrank across all three major indices even as the tape went sideways. Mega caps carried the week while the average stock lagged. A flat index with narrowing internals is not “healthy digestion.” It is a handful of names offsetting pressure everywhere else while oil and yields do the damage underneath.

This week’s calendar

Tue (9/8): Consumer Credit. NFIB Small Business Optimism.

Wed (9/9): MBA Mortgage Applications.

Thu (9/10): PPI. Initial claims. Continuing claims. Existing home sales. Wholesale inventories. EIA crude. EIA natural gas.

Fri (9/11): CPI. Treasury Budget. Michigan Sentiment.

Thursday and Friday are the real days. PPI first, then CPI. That’s what yields will trade. Oil inventories sit in the middle of it, so crude can still run the tape if Hormuz stays hot.

SPX Levels

Breakout of the trendline could lead to higher prices. After 7.790, we see next resistance level at 7,840.

Resistance: 7,730 / 7,790

Support: 7,679 / 7,651

Trade Ideas

Read more

Diesel refining margins surged to record highs this week as escalating geopolitical disruptions in Iran and critically depleted Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories fuel fears of an imminent supply shock. Compounding these pressures, a developing hurricane threatens the Gulf Coast, forcing regional refineries to suspend operations.

This convergence of factors points toward a severe autumn supply crunch as retailers scramble to rebuild inventories ahead of the holiday and winter seasons. Grocery distributors face the brunt of these surging transportation and production costs, which will likely filter into higher upcoming PPI prints and increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider rate hikes.

AGRIBUINESS ETF

Call gamma has experienced a notable surge across agribusiness ETFs, pointing to a distinct capital rotation into the fertilizer and agricultural chemical sector.

POSITIONING UPDATE

WTI ETF

Read more

SPX retested our lower support around 7,630. Now we’re sitting on a cluster of supports in this 7,620- 7,630 range. If we break down those levels we will continue lower towards 7,500 and even 7,400.

Resistance above is around 7,690-7,700 range.

September is the weakest month. It is the only calendar month with a negative long-term average return for the S&P 500, and it posts gains less often than any other month.

Let’s be clear: September usually sucks. But it also provides nice buy-the-dip opportunities. Volatility is still suppressed, so we don’t know how big a dip we might get. We’ll keep paying attention. The ideal is to have a few favorite names ready that you want to add.I’ll come up with a list myself and publish it. Be ready, and when there’s an opportunity, take it.

TRADE LOG UPDATE

Read more

SPX is wacky and traders are unsure what to expect this week. We literally had one trending week after two months of chop and now again since early August we’re in the same situation. No mans land of low volume and low volatility. Labor Day is on Monday September 7th and we are expecting volume to pick up after.

Revising the breakout of the summer range is a possibility at this point.

Resistance: 7,715 / 7,730

Support: 7,680 / 7,630

We have a back to school special going on for those who want to check our TMAD app and become paying members of this Substack. It’s a great deal. 20% off which makes the price $55/monthly, and with this special the yearly has almost 40% discount.

Click here to take advantage of this offer and upgrade to paid.

Now, let’s look at some trade ideas that stood out yesterday.

Read more