Trading Mindset & Data

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TMAD Commodities: Diesel Shortage Fuels Food Inflation

$MOO $USO $SLV $GLD $URA

Alessio Urban's avatar
Alessio Urban
Sep 04, 2026
∙ Paid

Hello Traders,

Diesel refining margins surged to record highs this week as escalating geopolitical disruptions in Iran and critically depleted Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories fuel fears of an imminent supply shock. Compounding these pressures, a developing hurricane threatens the Gulf Coast, forcing regional refineries to suspend operations.

This convergence of factors points toward a severe autumn supply crunch as retailers scramble to rebuild inventories ahead of the holiday and winter seasons. Grocery distributors face the brunt of these surging transportation and production costs, which will likely filter into higher upcoming PPI prints and increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider rate hikes.

MOO 0.00%↑ AGRIBUINESS ETF

Call gamma has experienced a notable surge across agribusiness ETFs, pointing to a distinct capital rotation into the fertilizer and agricultural chemical sector.

POSITIONING UPDATE

USO 0.00%↑ WTI ETF

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