TMAD Commodities: Full Scale War Scenario Increases

$USO $BNO $GLD $SLV $URA

Hello Traders,

Recent statements from Tehran continue to clash with President Trump’s optimistic outlook on a diplomatic breakthrough, with any prospect of a deal fading as Iran launches fresh missile strikes against U.S. bases in the region.

Compounding these escalating tensions, reports indicate Tehran is set to acquire advanced short-range air defense systems from China, signaling that the regime is preparing for a protracted conflict rather than a settlement.

With the administration managing constrained weapon stockpiles and Pentagon funding pressures, the likelihood of persistent Iranian strikes remains high, keeping pressure on the U.S. while recognizing that a temporary ceasefire would primarily serve to allow Washington time to resupply.

It's becoming pretty clear that a real peace deal is still a long way off. With refineries getting hit and diesel prices in New York staying stubbornly high, inflation is sticking around. If fuel costs don't cool down soon, the Fed is going to be forced to step in and hike interest rates again.

POSITIONING UPDATE

BNO 0.00%↑ BRENT OIL ETF