TMAD Commodities: Oil Market in Calm

$GLD $URA $SLV $USO

Hello Traders,

The oil market is currently enjoying a calm that it hasn't earned. While prices have retreated below $70, the cost of that stability is visible in our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which is now at its lowest point since 1983.

Trump used up the fire extinguisher to put out the Iran-conflict fire, but the shed is still filled with fuel. If the peace deal falters, we have almost no buffer left. Brace for a volatility spike that could easily push us back above $100 if the supply chain gets snagged again.

POSITIONING UPDATE

USO 0.00%↑ WTI ETF

USO is finding some technical relief as the put-wall cluster continues to hold, providing a temporary floor. However, don't mistake this for a recovery. Despite the ongoing peace talks, the headlines out of the Strait of Hormuz, including Iran's latest warnings to tankers, are keeping the market on edge.

My view remains a bottoming phase, but the negative GEX tells us that any rally will be met with selling pressure. We are in a 'wait-and-see' environment where the floor is only as strong as the next diplomatic update.

TA: Oil is near cluster of supports at $95 and $100.

GLD 0.00%↑ GOLD ETF