TMAD Commodities: Peace Deal In Limbo
Hello Traders,
We had some insane trades today. FCEL 0.00%↑ from yesterday was a swing trade but the target hit furiously. The setup was perfect and the name had 94/100 score on our scanner yesterday. Closed immediately. BLDP 0.00%↑ was up massively today also, as explained on our webinar stop moved to breakeven around 4.60.
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You can see more trades opened on our trade log attached at the end of this letter. Trail stops wisely. Ask if you have any questions.
Now, let’s start with our commodities report.
We are currently in a high-stakes waiting game. The market is being whipsawed by daily headlines, one day we’re 'on the verge of peace,' the next we’re at the edge of military escalation.
This back-and-forth is keeping oil prices on a hair-trigger. Options traders are bracing for the worst by staying positioned for higher prices, even as the political pressure mounts. We’re in a 'binary' environment: either the Strait opens, or the conflict widens. Either way, expect more turbulence before we find any real direction.
Precious metals are experiencing a period of heightened sensitivity to monetary policy. While the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz provides a baseline 'war premium,' the market is increasingly focused on the looming threat of further Fed rate hikes triggered by persistent inflation. Investors are maintaining a 'defensive long' stance but are clearly keeping an exit window open; should the Fed signal a more hawkish path to counter rising inflation expectations, we anticipate a tactical rotation out of the metals complex
