TMAD Commodities: Traffic In The Strait Halts
$GLD $SLV $URA $USO
Hello Traders,
The confrontation between the U.S. and Iran has entered a volatile new phase. Recent reports indicate that President Trump is considering an expansion of military operations, driven by mounting domestic pressure to move beyond the failed June ceasefire.
Many within the administration view previous diplomatic efforts as a sign of weakness, leading to a consensus that coercive force is now the only viable path to securing the Strait of Hormuz.
INFLATION FEARS
While the administration publicly maintains that maritime traffic remains stable, conditions on the ground reveal a starkly different reality. Shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted, and tightening supply constraints have driven diesel prices back to April levels, reigniting fears of a substantial fuel shortage in the coming months.
Precious metals remain under downward pressure, as I’ve previously cautioned. The market has largely looked past headline CPI and PPI prints, shifting its focus toward long-term inflation expectations. This fundamental repricing has solidified the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, creating a persistent headwind for non-yielding assets
