TMAD Flow: Warsh and FOMC
$SPX
Hi everyone,
Tomorrow is FOMC Meeting. The actual rate decision tomorrow isn’t the big deal. Markets already expect no hike, and with political pressure on the new Fed chair to ease policy, that’s not going to change.
What matters is Kevin Warsh. Jerome Powell had built real trust with markets over the years. People believed what he said. That trust is gone now, and Warsh has to earn it back starting tomorrow.
The main question is simple: Is he going to be independent, or will he just follow political pressure from the White House?
Here’s what we’re watching:
Will he be honest about the data, even when it doesn’t line up with the push for lower rates?
How does the market react right after he speaks — with confidence or skepticism?
How clear is he on what would actually change rates going forward?
This is the first real test of how the Fed will work under new leadership. We’ll send you some thoughts tomorrow evening.
