TMAD Spotlight: All Eyes on CPI & PPI
$SPX
Hi everyone,
The market remains choppy. The focus is now on:
JPM and GS earnings today pre-market. All eyes on the guidance.
CPI (Tuesday morning): The first major inflation test. A hot or cool print could meaningfully shift rate hike (or cut) expectations in either direction.
PPI (Wednesday): The important follow-up read that will either confirm or contradict the story told by CPI.
SPX has been stuck in this public distribution range since the end of May or early June. This week will hopefully give us some direction. Let’s look at some scenarios and what to pay attention to in the following days:
Key risks for market selloff this week:
Hot PPI (core/services stronger than ~0.1% expected) — kills rate-cut hopes, spikes yields.
Sticky CPI follow-through today.
Hawkish Fed testimony (Warsh today/Wed).
Weak retail sales / jobless claims or bad bank earnings.
Technical profit-taking near highs.
Key triggers for market to go up tomorrow & this week:
Soft PPI (at or below ~0.1%, especially core) — confirms cooling inflation, boosts rate-cut odds.
Cool CPI today (mild deflation headline, contained core).
Dovish Fed testimony (Warsh signals cuts possible).
Strong retail sales, solid bank earnings, or lower jobless claims.
Relief rally on reduced uncertainty near highs and a breakout of the range resistance at 7,600.
Soft inflation data = risk-on boost.
