Hi everyone,
October CPI comes out tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. ET. The consensus is for headline CPI to rise 0.3% month over month, with core CPI up 0.2%.
A hotter-than-expected reading could pressure stocks if it pushes yields higher, while a cooler reading could improve risk appetite. But the details and what’s already priced in will matter, so neither reaction is guaranteed.
One unusual detail: October’s headline and core year-over-year rates aren’t expected to be published because October 2025 price data are missing following the government shutdown. That makes the monthly numbers especially important.
Options Positioning
On SPY, TMAD shows a notable increase of 54,498 contracts in the November 13 $715 puts. That’s a significant build in downside positioning below the market.
