Hi traders,
AAPL and PLTR beat and still sold off after hours, a US strike on Iran, and VIX above 21. Here’s how I’m preparing.
Earnings: Beats That Got Sold
Apple AAPL 0.00%↑ reported fiscal Q4 after the close today (Nov 2):
EPS $2.10 vs. $1.99 expected; revenue $114.5B (+12% y/y) vs. $113.4B
iPhone $57.6B (+17%), Services a record $31.6B (+10%), Mac $10.8B (+24%). iPad and Wearables missed.
Guide: December-quarter revenue +7–10%, but gross margin 45–46% vs. 46.3% expected, pressured by memory costs and the Siri AI ramp.
After hours: about $328.81, -2.8% from the $338.32 close.
Palantir PLTR 0.00%↑ also reported after the close:
Adj. EPS $0.44 vs. $0.41; revenue $2.31B (+96% y/y) vs. $2.18B
US commercial $984M (+148%) passed US government ($953M, +96%) for the first time.
FY26 revenue guide raised to about $8.53B.
After hours: about $172.99, -3.0% from the $178.34 close.
My take: when great numbers get sold, the market is telling you where the bar is. Both stocks were already weak into the print. PLTR fell 6.3% Friday and 3.1% today. Respect the reaction.
Volatility Spikes Signal a Shift in Risk Tolerance
VIX closed at 21.15 today, up from 17.20 on Thursday. In three sessions the S&P 500 went from 7,720 to 7,541. Leaders sold on good news, oil whipsawed, and vol expanded. That’s a shift in risk tolerance, and I don’t want to fight it.
Even If You Do Not Protect, Prepare
You don’t have to hedge everything. But you should know how before you need it.
Options (keep it simple):
Protective puts: buy puts on SPY/QQQ or a big position. That’s defined cost and pure insurance. Those are pretty expensive especially with higher VIX.
Put spreads: buy one put and sell a lower strike. It’s cheaper and protects a specific range, which helps when VIX makes puts pricey.
Collars: own the stock, buy a put and sell a call. That’s low or no cost, and you cap the upside in exchange.
Inverse ETFs (non-leveraged, -1x daily) - These are just examples, there are many more.
SH (-1x S&P 500), 0.88% expense ratio
PSQ (-1x Nasdaq-100), 0.95%
DOG (-1x Dow), 0.95%
RWM (-1x Russell 2000), 0.95%
Why -1x and not 2x/3x? These funds reset daily. In choppy markets, leveraged inverse funds can decay fast over multiple days, so your return drifts far from the “2x” or “3x” you expected. -1x funds drift too, but much less. For a hedge you hold for days or weeks, -1x is the cleaner tool.
Simple sizing: hedge a portion of your long exposure, not all of it. Example: with $50K long in mostly tech, $10–15K in PSQ offsets roughly 20–30% of a Nasdaq drop. Match the hedge to what you own (small caps → RWM).
And the basics: raise some cash, tighten stops under key levels, and don’t add new longs in Stage 3/4 names. I have currently 60% cash.
SPX Levels
SPX is sitting right on support 1. If 7535 breaks and 7500 doesn’t hold, watch out, because that’s where selling can accelerate and we might get to our first potential correction level of 7,400. (Please the below attached article we wrote back on Sept. 20). To the upside, 7589 and then 7633 are the levels to reclaim before I trust a bounce.
ARTICLE FROM SEPTEMBER 20, 2026
