TMAD Weekly: Biggest Earnings Week + FOMC
$AAPL $META $MSFT $AMZN $NOW
Hi everyone,
The market continues to show sideways, choppy price action. We have a monster earnings week coming up. AAPL, AMZN, META, and MSFT are the biggest ones (along with several other heavyweights). Plus we have FOMC. Get ready for the volatility. We’ll put out earnings prep closer to those dates (usually the day before). Also, if you’re frustrated with the market and recent performance, relax. Plenty of strong traders are dealing with drawdowns this month, and equity curves have flattened noticeably, especially over the last two weeks.
Weekend Developments with Iran
After nearly two weeks of consecutive U.S. nighttime strikes, the U.S. paused attacks for a second straight night. Iran reported a peaceful night with no new strikes and confirmed it had also halted its retaliatory operations against U.S. allies, calling its strategy reactive. Tensions remain high over the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran’s IRGC claimed to have stopped multiple vessels. Diplomatic efforts, including talks involving Oman on traffic management, are underway, with some viewing the mutual pause as a positive signal for possible interim talks.
This could have a positive impact on the market in the Monday morning session.
The Week Ahead: High-Stakes Data and the Fed
This is the biggest week of the summer. On Wednesday, the Fed is expected to hold rates at 3.50–3.75%. The statement and press conference will matter a lot after recent mixed data — falling inflation, weak jobs numbers, but stronger services and housing.
On Thursday, Q2 GDP is expected at 2.3%. It will show if growth is still holding up. PCE prices are forecast to turn slightly negative.
On Friday, the Employment Cost Index and other data will check if wages and confidence are cooling.
This week will heavily influence when the Fed might start cutting rates.
The Bigger Market Picture
The easy upside and easy money may be finished, yet aggressive shorting of the S&P is not advised until we change the trend and break down below long-term support around 6,970.
There’s a chance we can break out the highs around 7,700 and continue towards 8,000, but we must be very cautious and also understand the bull market is most likely in the final stages.
We opened some long-term hedges.
We have SPY 740/700 bear put spreads for December, QQQ 685/640 bear put spreads for November, and SPY 735/700 bear put spreads for October. All regular expiries.
Sure, if the market bounces now, we might be down on the hedges, but that’s what hedges are for, and also we have a longer-term expiry, so let’s see how long any bounce lasts.
What names are looking good into next week?
