TMAD Weekly: Inflation Data This Week + Energy Worries
$XBI $DFTX $MTCH
Hi everyone,
Markets are focused on two things right now: weak growth signs and risks from shipping problems. Even if the strait opened or not, traffic still hasn’t recovered. This keeps the door open for a fuel supply crunch. If that happens, bond yields could break higher. It’s basically the only big tail risk the market isn’t pricing in yet.
This week has the most important inflation numbers since the spring price shock:
Tuesday CPI: Expected at -0.1% headline (first monthly deflation since 2020). Core CPI at +0.2% — underlying inflation looks contained.
Wednesday PPI: Expected to drop sharply to +0.1% from 1.1%.
If these soft numbers come in, it changes the Fed’s thinking. Combined with June’s weak 57K jobs report and consumer credit shrinking by $0.2 billion, the risks now lean more toward growth slowdown. This could open the door for rate cuts.
Bottom line: Softer inflation would support stocks and lower bond yields. But any real fuel-supply crunch could quickly flip things and push yields higher.
Let’s look at some trade ideas and what to expect from the market:
