TMAD Weekly: Oil Tumbles, and TOP 10 Scanner Names for the Week
$NOK $STM $AAPL $ZM $$VPG
Hi All,
Taders were divided on staying long into the three-day weekend. Some wanted to be part of a potential peace deal, and some worried about potential escalation. Thus, we took some partial profits and trailed stops.
The closer we get to the midterm, the less I believe we’d see a massive escalation from USA side to harm market performance. Many strongly believe the market is the economy, which couldn’t be further from the truth.
On Saturday, the President publicly stated that a US-Iran deal was "largely negotiated," sending the peace-dividend crowd into early celebrations. But by Sunday, the narrative abruptly shifted: negotiators were instructed not to rush a final agreement, and the blockade remains fully intact.
Despite that, oil markets traded the initial headline. In Monday's electronic session, Brent crude tumbled 5.7% to $97.69 per barrel.
This exposes a massive disconnect between financial market speed and physical supply chain reality. Markets are aggressively repricing inflation risk based on political rhetoric, but the structural bottleneck hasn't changed. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, keeping roughly 20% of global oil and LNG supply offline. Until physical tankers actually resume clearing that chokepoint, these selloffs are built on pure sentiment, not supply.
The Fed’s Patience is Wearing Thin
While equity bulls remain fixated on AI capex pushing semiconductor stocks higher, the bond market is digesting a much more hawkish reality. The flattening yield curve is still echoing Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s comments from late last week.
Waller explicitly stated that the likelihood of a rate hike and a cut are now roughly equal, warning that if inflation expectations become unanchored, he will decisively support raising rates. Given Friday’s abysmal University of Michigan survey, where 1-year inflation expectations surged to 4.8% and consumer sentiment hit a record low of 44.8. The decline is heavily tied to surging gasoline costs, driven directly by the Hormuz blockade, and fears that inflation will soon proliferate beyond fuel.
The Short Week Ahead
As we head into a compressed four-day trading week, the market must reconcile two competing realities. On one side, the unstoppable momentum of megacap tech and AI spending continues to scale the wall of worry. On the other, we face sticky inflation, a hawkish shift brewing within the FOMC, and a global energy crisis that remains fundamentally unresolved.
Expect heightened volatility. Also observing NYMO/NAMO indicators, we could see a selloff in the next couple of weeks, most likely around FOMC, June
Selloff doesn’t mean bear market, simply price adjustment.
Pay attention and stick to the plan as usually.
Now, let’s see some SPX Levels and TOP 10 Picks for the week based on our TMAD Scanner. We play the momentum, as that’s the safest bet.
